Future development trends of the chemical industry: Why Global Mainstream Media's Views Are Surprisingly Consistent?

Fitch Ratings《Global Chemicals Outlook 2026》，2026The development trend of the global chemical industry this year is likely to remain at the bottom of the cycle for an extended period.

Global overcapacity and trade barriers make it difficult for market demand to recover.2026The pressure of the year remains.

Deloitte《2026 Chemical Industry Outlook》，2026The basic trends in the global chemical industry this year include weak demand and overcapacity in basic chemicals, leading to continued pressure on operating rates and profit margins.

Our country's policy is very clear.2026The annual growth of the added value of the chemical industry at least5%Expand the supply of high-end products and promote technological breakthroughs in key products such as electronic chemicals and high-end polyolefins.

In other words,2026The main focus of China's chemical industry this year is supply-side upgrading and breakthroughs in high-end products.

2025 7In [Month], the EU released“The "Stronger EU" chemical industry action plan clearly outlines its main directions as competitiveness and modernization, with a focus on structural adjustment and policy support.

The latest report by the Financial Times suggests that the pressure on the shutdown and downsizing of the European chemical industry will continue.

High energy costs, carbon costs, weak demand, global overcapacity, and low-priced products from Asia.

2026These will continue to impact the supply structure and trade direction of the European chemical industry this year.

1. Core Judgment Framework Logic

2026The prosperity of the annual chemical industry will not be.“Comprehensive Recovery”It can only be considered as“Structural improvement”。

Fitch believes that,2026The year will be the global chemical cycle'sFourth YearA rebound in demand in a single sector or region cannot change the global situation.

Whether the speed of clearing supply can keep up with the growth rate of new capacity, and the impact of trade frictions on the flow of goods across regions, are the key factors affecting the overall situation.

2026The main development lines of China, the U.S., and Europe in the middle of the year.

The chemical industry in the United States is expected to experience weak growth in 2026, with structural highlights potentially emerging.AI'sIndustry demand.

American Chemistry CouncilACCThe latest view believes that American chemical industry2025The overall performance of the year was relatively weak, with limited growth in chemical product output. The industry is still in a slow recovery phase, but the pace of recovery is very limited.

Deloitte believes that the US chemical industry2026The overall year is still relatively weak, and it is even believed that its chemical production may slightly contract.

The main reason is the surplus of basic chemicals and uneven end-user demand, which will continue to suppress operating rates and profit margins.

2026The trend in the American chemical industry for the year is slow recovery and structural differentiation.AIHigh-end materials such as specialty materials, electronic chemicals, cooling, and functional materials will have better development trends.

The battle to defend European competitiveness: policy support and capacity adjustment.

The European Commission's action plan involves a series of improvement measures to enhance the competitiveness and modernization of the European chemical industry.

2026European chemical industry will focus on safeguarding the supply chain, reducing costs, promoting investment, and reassessing the green transition path in these key directions.

CeficThe growth and competitiveness of the European chemical industry are still far below pre-crisis levels, mainly due to weak demand and uncompetitive energy prices.

The Financial Times report explicitly points out that the main reasons for the industry's pressure are the shutdown of production capacity in Europe, low demand, global oversupply, the impact of low-priced products from Asia, and high energy and carbon costs.2026The European chemical industry needs to reshape its competitiveness with the support of policies.

China is advancing both stable growth and high-end development, accelerating breakthroughs in electronic chemicals and key materials.

The official domestic planning information clearly2026The annual growth in the added value of the petrochemical industry will be at least5%Above, and there is a need to continuously expand the supply of high-end products.

Accelerate technological breakthroughs in key products such as electronic chemicals and high-end polyolefins, and foster a number of high-quality chemical parks and industrial clusters.

FitchChina still has considerable new capacity deployment in areas such as ethylene and polyolefins, which will have spillover effects on global supply-demand balance, prices, and trade frictions.

2026The state of China's chemical industry this year involves two concurrent lines: the global cyclical situation exerting pressure on bulk commodities, and the structural opportunities in high-end and electronic materials.

Three, the world's three major regions.2026Common trends of the year

Trend 1: Excess capacity is still the industry“First-order constraint”

Overcapacity will affect the global chemical industry.2026The year continues to be at the bottom of the cycle, and will amplify the credit and financing risks for enterprises.

Trend Two: The level of trade tensions will alter regional flows and pricing.

Global trade tensions are severely impacting the short-term recovery of industry demand, and Europe has regarded the import of low-priced products as a significant external factor in the industry's predicament.

Trend Three:AIProvide a more certain structural increment to the semiconductor industry.

The demand in the global chemical market is becoming increasingly uneven, with weak demand for basic chemical products and a low likelihood of short-term recovery. Some materials related to high technology may have more support.

4. Practical Implications for Enterprises and Investors

A diverse product mix and business strategy can help companies emerge from cycles earlier.

Bulk products should focus on optimizing operating rates, maintaining healthy cash flow, and defending the cost curve.

In high-end application areas such as specialty materials and electronic materials, strategies should be formulated around the approach of customer certification, technical barriers, and production capacity ramp-up.

Whether the supply clearance in Europe continues will be a key variable for global rebalancing. If shutdowns and policy support can work in sync, it may potentially change the marginal supply locally.

However, excessively high energy prices and carbon costs will continue to lead to new shutdowns and will also hinder the effectiveness of policies.

The increase in production capacity and high-end breakthroughs in our country will have a global impact. Commodities can influence the world through price and trade transmission, while high-end products create more opportunities through import substitution and the integration of global customers.