[EVA Weekly Outlook] Expected Domestic EVA Market to Operate in Weak Stalemate Soon

I. Focus Points

1 [Longzhong] 10/10: The situation between Israel and Palestine continues to ease, combined with the potential risks from U.S. tariff issues, leading to a drop in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the November contract fell by $2.61 per barrel to $58.90, a decrease of 4.24% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude oil futures for the December contract fell by $2.49 per barrel to $62.73, a decrease of 3.82% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2511 contract fell by 2.5 to 466.2 yuan per barrel, with a night session drop of 21.2 to 445 yuan per barrel.

2 Ethylene: The market supply is becoming increasingly sufficient, and some production enterprises are facing rising inventory pressure due to continuous underwhelming shipments. The downstream's expectations for purchase prices are low, leading to increased pessimism in the market, with a possibility of ethylene prices moving downward. Recently, the transaction range in the East China region is expected to be around 6200-6550 yuan/ton; the availability of US dollar-denominated resources has increased more than expected, and prices may remain weakly stable between 800-810 USD/ton.

Vinyl acetate: The production enterprises on the supply side are primarily focusing on orders and shipments, resulting in a limited amount of marketable spot inventory. Holders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and downstream demand continues at previous levels, leading to limited negotiations in the spot market, with price focus remaining at the high end. The fundamentals of vinyl acetate are strong, and market participants are highly supportive of price stability. Attention should still be paid to the arrival of imported goods and the production schedule of downstream EVA units. New information is awaited for guidance. It is expected that the short-term market for vinyl acetate will maintain a strong performance at high levels.

Core logic: The cost side supports stability, the supply side support for EVA is average, downstream demand follow-up slows down, market confidence is frustrated, and there is a supply-demand game in the market.

Price List

3. Data Form

4. Market Outlook

This week, there is little inventory pressure on the supply side from petrochemicals, maintaining a firm pricing mechanism. The market supply is expected to remain ample, while downstream demand is slow to follow up. In the absence of a strong foaming season, market transactions are unlikely to improve significantly. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will be in a stalemate and weakly consolidated in the coming days, with attention on further market developments. Expected prices: soft materials at 10,900-11,400 yuan/ton, hard materials at 10,600-11,500 yuan/ton, photovoltaic materials at 10,800-11,200 yuan/ton.

V. Data Calendar