Domestic LDPE/EVA Production Capacity Map Released: Who’s Leading? Who’s Shaking Up the Market?

From the old facilities of Daqing Petrochemical to the new capacity of Yulong Petrochemical; from the shutdown maintenance of Yan Shan Petrochemical to the advanced hot melt adhesive line of Rainbow New Materials; a table clearly lays out the national LDPE/EVA inventory, technology routes, production switching capabilities, and the latest developments.

Production capacity landscape: East China “leaps ahead,” regional divergence intensifies

The national total capacity is nearly ten million tons, with the East China region ranking third with an output of 3.35 million tons per year, accounting for more than 40%. Projects such as Yulong Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Sierbang are concentrated here, along with photovoltaic-grade EVA and high-end hot-melt adhesive capacities, becoming the "stabilizer" of industry supply.

North China, South China, and Northwest China follow closely, forming distinctive industrial clusters centered on Yanshan Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Ningdong Coal Chemical Base, respectively, while the older petrochemical facilities in Northeast China are gradually withdrawing from the primary supply chain, leading to a reshaping of the regional landscape.

Route Iteration: High-Pressure Processes Remain the Foundation; MTO and Conversion Are Key to Breaking Through

Conventional oil-based high-pressure tubular and autoclave processes remain dominant, with mature technologies from Basell, Mobil, and others supporting the vast majority of production capacity—stable but lacking flexibility.

The MTO route production capacity is rapidly rising, with projects such as Lianhong Gerun and Guoneng Ningdong leveraging the advantages of coal chemical industry to achieve low-cost mass production, becoming the "cost dark horses" of the industry.

A flexible conversion capacity of over 1.7 million tons per year for E/L products serves as a “flexible buffer” for enterprises to cope with market fluctuations; switching between LDPE and EVA acts as a fine-tuning switch for the market supply-demand balance.

Dynamic Tracking: New Capacity Concentrated in Release, Old Facilities Accelerated in Clearance

2024–2025 will be a major commissioning period for the industry, with large projects such as Yulong Petrochemical, ExxonMobil Huizhou, and Hongjing New Materials coming online, adding over 2 million tons per year of new supply to the market.

At the same time, some old production lines, such as those at Yanshan Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical, have been shut down due to maintenance, environmental, or cost factors. The gap between "effective supply" and "nominal capacity" in the industry is widening. Future competition is no longer just about scale, but about effective capacity, product structure, and the ability to produce high-end products.

Industry Reflection: In an Era of Oversupply, Who Will Survive?

Photovoltaic-grade EVA, hot-melt adhesive-grade EAA, high-end special materials... The newly added capacity has long moved away from "homogeneous expansion", and instead is shifting towards high-value-added sectors.

Under the flexible adjustment of convertible production capacity and the cost shocks of coal-based production capacity, the future market will be a "survival of the fittest" competition where "high-end capacity competes for market share and low-end capacity is eliminated".