[daily pom review] strong fundamental support, market trend remains firm

1. Today's Summary

1. The spot supply from petrochemical plants is tight. 。

The market trend is relatively firm.

2 Spot Overview

Table 1 Summary of Domestic POM Prices (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Based on the Yuyao region as a benchmark, the price of YunTianHua M90 is 11,000 yuan/ton today, stable compared to the previous period. Today, the POM market remains stable with strong supply conditions. Petrochemical plants are under no inventory pressure, and mainstream market quotations continue to be high. Traders mainly operate according to market conditions, with actual transactions based on demand. As of the market close, the domestic POM price in Yuyao is 8,100-11,200 RMB/ton (including tax), and the cash price in Dongguan is 7,300-10,400 RMB/ton.

3 Production Dynamics

This week, the domestic POM capacity utilization rate is at 93.15%, a decrease of 0.52% compared to last week's operation. The 40,000-ton/year POM plant of Tianjin Bohua is currently shut down for maintenance, while the POM plants of other manufacturers are operating stably. This week's maintenance-related production loss has slightly reduced, thus leading to a decrease in operating rates. The prices of methanol and POM both increased, with the increase in POM being greater than that of methanol. The gross profit margin of the product has increased, raising the profit margin by 103 yuan per ton.

Figure 3 Domestic POM Capacity Utilization Rate Trend Chart for 2024-2025	Figure 4: Comparison of Domestic POM Profits and Prices for 2024-2025 (Yuan/ton)
Data source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

4. Price Forecast

At the beginning of the week, there is limited guidance information from various regions. The total inventory of manufacturers is relatively low, and the ex-factory prices remain stable. The fundamentals provide strong support. However, the follow-up of terminal demand is slow, leading to an increased market wait-and-see atmosphere. Downstream factories mainly focus on digesting existing inventory, making it difficult for large orders to occur in the short term. Traders are appropriately increasing the negotiation space, and actual transactions are being negotiated flexibly. Longzhong expects that the domestic POM market will observe and consolidate in the short term.

5 Relevant product information:

Methanol:Today's methanol spot price index is 2205.34, up by 5.05. The spot price in Taicang is 2374, down by 6, while the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line is 2102.5, up by 12.5. According to Longzhong's monitoring of prices in 20 major cities, three cities have experienced varying degrees of increase, ranging from 5 to 25 yuan/ton. Today, the methanol market in Northwest China shows an overall stable to rising trend. The main enterprises in Inner Mongolia's northern line are auctioning off their supply, and under the just-needed replenishment by buyers, transaction prices have slightly increased, though the range of increase is relatively limited. In the Guanzhong area, due to some equipment maintenance leading to tight regional supply, some companies have adjusted their prices upwards with smooth transactions following. Enterprises in regions like Yulin are mainly observing and have not yet issued new prices. Overall, due to supply tightening caused by maintenance and production reductions and the support from end-user demand, the methanol market in Northwest China is expected to maintain a strong fluctuation in the short term. Attention should be given to tomorrow's bidding situation in Lubei's downstream, which will guide market prices.

6 Data Calendar

Table 2 Overview of Domestic POM Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)