Chemical commodities surge! international oil prices climb above $110, 128 raw materials rise

As the U.S. and Israel intensify their strikes against Iran, the global crude oil market has plunged into severe volatility, triggering a historic surge in international oil prices amid escalating market concerns over energy supply shortages.

International oil prices surged past $110 per barrel!

Today,WTI crude oil futures surged more than 30%, reaching $118.7 per barrel, the highest level since June 2022; Brent crude oil futures rose by 27%, peaking at $117.9 per barrel.

As of now, WTI crude oil is priced at $104.32 per barrel, and Brent crude oil is priced at $107.93 per barrel, with prices continuing to rise.

Source*: Sina Finance

CCTV News reported that after the US and Israel launched a military strike on Iran, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced control over the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, prohibiting the passage of vessels from the United States, Israel, and European countries. The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial global energy transportation route, and public opinion suggests that as time goes on, the pressure on the oil supply chain will increase, and rising oil prices will have an impact on the global economy.

As regional conflicts continue to escalate, multiple institutions and industry experts have issued strong warnings about the future trajectory of oil prices. On March 6, Qatar’s Energy Minister stated that all Gulf energy-producing countries are expected to halt exports within weeks, a move that could drive oil prices up to $150 per barrel. A JPMorgan report also noted that if the Strait of Hormuz were to be completely closed, the storage capacity of the seven major Middle Eastern oil-producing countries would only last 25 days, after which they would be forced to shut down production entirely.

Some analysts believe that, in the short term, oil prices will remain volatile at high levels due to the combined impact of the Middle East conflict, the suspension of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on Iran’s oil storage facilities—potentially pushing prices above $120 per barrel. In the medium term, if the conflict eases, shipping resumes, and Iran’s oil storage facilities are gradually restored, prices will gradually revert to fundamentals driven by supply and demand; OPEC’s production increase plan and the rise in U.S. drilling rigs may alleviate supply pressures. In the long term, price trends will depend on the evolution of geopolitical tensions, the development of alternative energy sources, and the pace of global economic recovery.

In the chemical market aspect,Affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the prices of almost all commodities have surged, with the weekly increases of dozens of commodities reaching double-digit growth. Among them, the weekly increase of maleic anhydride reached.47%, with dichloromethane up 33% week-over-week and acrylic acid up 29% week-over-week.

The recent oil price increase has directly driven up the prices of upstream raw materials such as aromatics, butadiene, and naphtha.Synchronized SurgeIt significantly increases the production costs of various chemical products. The cost pressure on the production side of enterprises has risen sharply, continuously compressing their profit margins.

It is worth noting that the domestic petrochemical industry coincides with the traditional maintenance season in March and April, coupled with news of multiple leading refining companies collectively reducing production.Haike Shell has reduced production by approximately 30%; Zhejiang Petrochemical, Hainan Refining & Chemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou have each cut output by about 20%; Fulian Petrochemical has reduced production by 30%; and Zhongke Refining & Chemical has cut output by 10%.Industry-wide supply-side constraints continue to tighten, further exacerbating the shortage of spot market supplies.

In the short term, there are no signs of easing in geopolitical conflicts, and the gap in crude oil supply cannot be quickly filled. The cost transmission effect will continue to intensify, and the trend of price increases is expected to spread to more subcategories, triggering a price hike cycle across the entire industry chain.

Affected by the situation in the Middle East, international oil prices continued to rise at the start of the new trading week on the evening of the 8th (U.S. Eastern Time), with the price of light sweet crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange briefly approaching $120 per barrel, marking a gain of over 30%.

Based on the current adjustment magnitude, the retail prices per liter of Grade 92 gasoline, Grade 95 gasoline, and No. 0 diesel will increase by RMB 0.39, RMB 0.41, and RMB 0.42 per liter, respectively.Accordingly, filling up a 50-liter tank with 92-octane gasoline is expected to cost an additional RMB 19.5, while filling up the same-sized tank with 95-octane gasoline will cost an additional RMB 20.5, significantly increasing travel expenses.

By convention,The implementation time of this round of oil price adjustment isMarch 9 (Monday) 24:00The final adjustment magnitude shall be subject to the official announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission.