[ABS Weekly Review] Geopolitical Factors Drive Significant Market Price Increase

I. This Week's Hot Topics

ABS market average price increased significantly this week, industry output slightly decreased, and petrochemical plant inventory decreased slightly.

II. This Week’s ABS Market Trends

The ABS market price rose significantly this week. Affected by the U.S.-Iran situation, crude oil prices surged strongly, driving up the entire commodity market, and the market was filled with speculative optimism for further price increases. The market trend showed an initial rise, followed by a drop and then a rebound. On Monday, supported by macroeconomic positive factors, manufacturers such as Lihua Investment, Sinopec, and Zhejiang Petrochemical significantly increased their ex-factory prices, and the market followed suit with a price increase. From Tuesday to Wednesday, due to a decline in raw materials, the market saw a large amount of profit-taking and selling, causing the price to fall back. Later, due to the of styrene, the market price was adjusted upward again. This week, the ABS price fluctuated sharply, with its movement closely following the geopolitical situation and crude oil prices, and the market was in a fierce battle between bullish and bearish forces, leaving market sentiment relatively exhausted.

In terms of specific prices, there has been a significant increase in the prices of mainstream grades in the East China and South China regions. Qimei 757K from Zhenjiang is quoted at 170,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 50,000 yuan/ton from the previous period, a 41.7% rise; Dagu 417 from Tianjin is not quoted; Jihua 0215A is quoted at 115,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 11,000 yuan/ton, a 10.6% rise; Taihua 15A1 from Ningbo is quoted at 145,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 31,000 yuan/ton, a 27.2% rise; LG Yongxing 121H and related grades from Zhejiang Petrochemical are not quoted. In the South China market, Taihua 15A1 from Ningbo is quoted at 126,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 15,000 yuan/ton; LG Yongxing 121H is quoted at 125,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 15,000 yuan/ton; Qimei 757K from Zhangzhou is quoted at 131,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 20,000 yuan/ton; (Jihua) Jieyang is quoted at 110,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 12,000 yuan/ton; Zhejiang Petrochemical 0211 is quoted at 115,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 20,000 yuan/ton.

III. Market Prediction

Affected by supply concerns triggered by geopolitical issues, the ABS market is expected to remain in a high-range fluctuation in the short term. Key points to focus on: next week, production will not change much, and factory inventories will remain controllable; demand side has limited acceptance of high prices, and recovery is slow; cost side, raw material prices remain high due to geopolitical situation; market traders are engaging in profit-taking. Overall, the ABS price is likely to remain in a high-range fluctuation next week, and continuous tracking of macroeconomic trends, crude oil movements, geopolitical situations, and facility operations is needed.