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[pvc weekly review] weak supply and demand, lackluster rebound, market range-bound fluctuations

Plastmatch 2026-05-28 19:43:53

I. This Week’s Market Focus

Production side: PVC plant capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.48% month-on-month, and industry output fell by 2.12% month-on-month, indicating an overall contraction in supply.
Inventory: Domestic PVC social inventory stood at 1.2832 million tons, down 1.18% month-on-month, but up significantly by 114.72% year-on-year, with total inventory still remaining at a high level.
Order side: The pre-sale volume of manufacturing enterprises decreased by 6.38% month-on-month and increased slightly by 3.44% year-on-year, indicating a weakening willingness for downstream stockpiling.

2. This Week’s Domestic PVC Market Analysis

During the current period (May 22–28, 2026), the domestic PVC market fluctuated overall, with prices edging up slightly but lacking sufficient rebound momentum. A pattern of weak supply and demand persisted throughout the week. At the beginning of the week, influenced by policies related to the ferrous sector, the market became concerned about a rise in calcium carbide feedstock costs, briefly generating expectations of price increases. However, the supply-demand situation for calcium carbide remained stable, with no obvious supply tightening or price fluctuations. As a result, the futures market lacked upward momentum, while spot prices continued to fluctuate within a range.

From a fundamentals perspective, there has been no substantial improvement in PVC supply and demand, which remain weak on both sides. Downstream end-users show clear resistance to higher prices, and transactions at elevated levels are hindered. As the end of the month approaches, market trading has become more cautious, with spot prices mainly fluctuating within a range. As of the weekend, mainstream cash ex-warehouse offers for calcium carbide-based SG-5 in East China were RMB 4,700–4,850/tonne; ethylene-based PVC prices remained stagnant, with negotiations concentrated in the range of RMB 5,000–5,300/tonne.

III. Key Focus Areas for the Next Phase

Policy and Raw Materials: Closely monitor the implementation of policies related to the PVC industry, as well as the price fluctuation trends of petrochemical raw materials.
External markets: Pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situations on international crude oil, while monitoring changes in shipping costs that restrict foreign trade shipments.
Terminal demand: Continuously monitor the operating loads of downstream manufacturing enterprises, as well as the domestic PVC export order-taking and signing situation.

Section Four: Market Forecast for Next Week

Considering the fundamentals, costs, and external environment, the weak trend in the PVC market is unlikely to be reversed next week, with downward pressure on the price level. It is expected that the mainstream benchmark price of SG-5 in East China will operate within this range.4600-4800 元 / 吨。

Supply sideThis week’s maintenance impact on plants fell short of expectations. Next week, operating rates at enterprises such as Guangzhou TOC, Inner Mongolia Yili, Dezhou Shihua, and Shandong Xinfa are expected to continue rising, and overall industry supply will edge up slightly, increasing pressure on the supply side.

Demand sideThe traditional off-season effect in the industry remains evident. Operating rates at downstream product manufacturers are difficult to improve, end-user orders remain weak, and spot transactions stay sluggish. External demand is also under pressure: India has entered the rainy season, leading to a decline in local demand, while rising ocean freight rates have further constrained export orders, weakening support from foreign trade. The concentrated month-end restocking phase by downstream buyers has largely ended, and market purchasing activity has fallen to a low level.

Cost aspectThe trends in feedstocks are diverging. In terms of ethylene, after the restart of Lotte’s steam cracker, South Korea’s export supply of ethylene has increased, and dollar-priced cargo supply is ample. Domestic ethylene truck transport and export prices are expected to decline, weakening cost support for ethylene-based PVC. In terms of calcium carbide, the earlier price increase lacked sustained momentum. As market supply gradually recovers, inventories have begun to build up in some regions, and carbide prices may ease slightly from their highs, further weakening the bottom support for calcium carbide-based PVC.

Overall, the PVC market next week will face multiple bearish factors from supply and demand as well as costs. Prices are expected to remain weak, with a relatively high probability of range-bound fluctuations trending downward.

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