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[PVC Monthly Review] Export Boost Meets Weak Demand, February PVC Rises Then Falls

Plastmatch 2026-02-28 17:08:57

In February 2026, the domestic PVC market was influenced by export policies, the Spring Festival holiday, and fundamental factors.Rise first then fallThe trend is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality.

1. Key Issues of Focus This Month

Expectations of export tax rebate cancellation spurred concentrated order signings before the holiday, and combined with sentiment-driven factors, supported a price uptick in February.

In February 2026, the domestic PVC production was 1.9851 million tons, a decrease of 7.61% compared to the previous month, and an increase of 5.78% compared to the same period last year.

The Spring Festival holiday caused slow resumption of downstream activities and significant inventory accumulation, limiting the upward potential of spot prices.

II. Market Review for This Month

The PVC market in February showed an overall trend of first rising and then falling.

At the beginning of the month, prices rose continuously amid export order grabbing, cost support, and expectations of valuation recovery. In mid-month, with the Spring Festival approaching, downstream enterprises gradually halted operations, upstream maintenance activities decreased, supply pressure intensified, and inventories accumulated steadily, leading to a price correction from the highs. After the holiday, terminal resumption of operations was relatively slow, transaction activity remained sluggish, and spot prices edged lower by month-end.

Overall, the PVC market this month, under the tug of war between policy benefits and off-season demand, surged before facing pressure and retreating.

III. Next Month's Market Forecast

PVC is expected to remain stable in March domestically.Supply strong, demand weak; bottom-range consolidationPattern

Supply-side pressure persists, with enterprise operating rates rebounding to around 82%, while social inventories remain at high levels, exerting clear downward pressure on prices. Although demand has entered its traditional peak season and downstream resumption of operations has generated some essential demand, rigid-demand products—particularly those tied to the real estate sector—show little sign of significant improvement. Delivery of export orders in the first half of March will temporarily ease supply-side pressure, but in the absence of major macroeconomic catalysts, prices lack sustained upward momentum.

PVC prices are expected to average around RMB 4,850 per ton in March, up RMB 79 per ton or 1.66% month-over-month.

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[PVC Monthly Review] Export Boost Meets Weak Demand, February PVC Rises Then Falls

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