[PVC Daily Review] Weak Bulk Demand, V Continues to Hit Intraday Lows

1. Today's Summary

1. Some domestic PVC producers’ ex-factory prices fell by RMB 20–100 per ton.

②、LG、 Formosa Plastics Ningbo, Xinjiang Yihua, etc. PVC Unit shutdown for maintenance.OrdosUnit maintenance is expected to end; some units at Fujian Wanhua are undergoing annual overhaul, while Huashu units are undergoing rotational maintenance.Inner Mongolia Elion recovery pending confirmation 。

③ The “15th Five-Year Plan” for building a new energy system has been released: by 2030, non-fossil energy sources will account for 50% of China’s power generation.

2 Spot Overview

Table 1 Summary of Domestic PVC Spot Prices (RMB/ton)

Based on the Changzhou market in East China, today's East China calcium carbide-based Type 5 spot cash ex-warehouse price is RMB 4,350/ton, down RMB 50/ton from the previous day. 。

PVC supply-demand fundamentals remain weak. With expectations of pullbacks in upstream energy and ethylene costs, coupled with the off-season in downstream end-user demand, bulk commodity futures prices continue to search for a bottom. In East China, ex-warehouse spot prices for calcium carbide-based Type 5 PVC are at RMB 4,300–4,450/mt, while ethylene-based PVC remains weak in the RMB 4,650–4,750/mt range.

3. Futures-Spot Basis

Table 2 Basis at Major Delivery Locations (yuan/ton)

The basis for the PVC basis contract 09 in the East China region varies between 40 and -120, with spot prices remaining firm and new material prices at a premium.

Figure 3 Basis Trend of PVC in East China (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data source: Longzhong Information

4. Production Updates

Table 3   PVC Maintenance device A list

Wuhai Chemical, Xinrong and others have no plans to resume production, and Cangzhou Julong’s 520,000-ton ethylene-based production line has not yet resumed operation.

Figure 4 Trend Chart of Domestic PVC Maintenance Losses and Price Correlation	Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Prices
Source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

5. Price Forecast

Next week, the maintenance season for PVC production enterprises will continue, and domestic and international market demand will remain stable. The market is observing India's tariff policy. The price ranges for calcium carbide and ethylene are expected to remain stable, with strong cost support at the bottom. Considering future demand and policy expectations, the sentiment in the spot market is optimistic. Overall, the short-term market fundamentals are weak, and the PVC spot market is likely to fluctuate within the bottom range next week.Expectations are improving. 。

6. Related Products

Calcium carbide ： The mainstream trade price of calcium carbide in the Wuhai region has been raised by 50 yuan/ton to 2300 yuan/ton.

Ethylene ： ethylene CFR Northeast Asia: USD 850/mt, down USD 20/mt; CFR Southeast Asia: USD 900/mt. 。

7. Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview (Unit: 10,000 tons, %)