Price Reaches New High Above $100, Coal Chemical Industry May Enter Golden Era

On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a joint military strike against Iran, causing the Middle East situation to spiral out of control instantly.

Within just two weeks, the oil market experienced a thrilling "roller coaster": Brent crude rose from $72.48 and reached a four-year high of $119.5 on March 9.As of the early hours of March 13 Beijing time, Brent crude oil settled at $100.46 per barrel, breaking the $100 mark for the second time recently.。

Faced with this complex situation, China is experiencing both short-term pain and long-term opportunities. This extremely high oil price has become a powerful "catalyst," forcing the country's chemical industry to shift from "defensive" to "offensive," accelerating the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan" strategic transformation.

Coal chemical industry profits have fully reversed.Coal-to-liquids and coal-to-olefins projects, long relegated to the margins, are entering a golden period.

Break-even pointWhen coal prices are between 500–600 RMB per ton, coal-to-liquids becomes viable as long as oil prices are above 60–70 USD per barrel.It can guarantee the principal.。

Cost AdvantageThe data shows that by 2025, the profitability of coal-to-LLDPE and coal-to-PP processes will far exceed that of oil-based processes.CMTO processWhen oil price exceeds 60 dollarsand has a cost advantage。

Penetration rate exceeds 50%With the support of the “trade-in” subsidy policy, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 50% by 2026, and even approach 60%.

Trade-in:In tandem with the state-level targeted subsidies, the market is experiencing a surge of aggressive growth.

Commercialization Tipping Point:The commercialization of alternative fuels such as green hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol in the chemical and shipping industries has been significantly accelerated due to high oil prices.

Capacity Shift to the West:High-carbon production capacities along the eastern coast are facing stringent scrutiny, and the industry is being systematically relocated to "desert, Gobi, and wasteland" bases in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu, and other regions, to build a new structure."Direct Green Electricity Connection"A green chemical industry cluster as the core.

Rule Rewriting: Translate the above content into English, output the translation result directly, without any explanation.Carbon Emission Rights Green electricity ratioOfficially link to financial indicators. Enterprises with low-carbon technologies and CCER (Certified Emission Reduction) will receive a premium, while backward production capacities will be forcibly phased out.

According to the 15th Five-Year Plan, the fates of different sectors have become clear:

This energy crisis, triggered by geopolitical factors, has imposed short-term cost pressures on manufacturing, yet it also presents China’s energy and chemical industry with an opportunity to “leapfrog” competitors. 2026 is not merely a time for defense—it marks the beginning of an offensive.