[POM Weekly Review] Plant Maintenance Fails to Reverse the Weak Trend, While the Spot Market Remains Rangebound and Cautious

1. Market Focus This Week

Yankuang Luhua Phase I and II POM units are fully shut down for maintenance, resulting in a temporary tightening of local supply.

The producers still have some willingness to support prices, and the supply side generally continues to operate with a price-stabilizing strategy.

The bearish market sentiment continues, with industry participants generally pessimistic about the future market outlook, while end-users and traders remain strongly cautious and on the sidelines.

II. Weekly Market Analysis

During this period (May 29–June 4, 2026), the domestic POM market was generally weak and rangebound, lacking substantive positive guidance throughout the week. Although the maintenance shutdown at Yankuang Luhua’s unit led to a localized tightening of supply, producers maintained stable prices and focused on shipments, with ex-works quotations unchanged. Spot market trading sentiment remained weak, traders showed low willingness to operate, and flexible discounts widened for some grades. Downstream purchasing slowed, with buyers sticking to just-in-time procurement and restocking as needed. Large-volume stockpiling was still slow to materialize, and overall actual transactions were mainly limited to scattered rigid-demand negotiations.

III. Analysis of Market Impact Factors

Price performanceThis week, spot POM prices fluctuated narrowly and consolidated. Mainstream grades in East China and South China were unchanged from last week, and the market remained in a sideways stalemate.

Project commencement levelDomestic POM industry capacity utilization stood at 83.73%, up slightly by 0.17 percentage points month-on-month. The reduction caused by Luhua’s maintenance was offset by the stable operation of other units, and overall industry supply remained ample.

Profit ChangesThis week, the average gross profit in the POM industry was RMB 804/ton, down RMB 31/ton week on week. Stagnant product prices and slight fluctuations in raw materials squeezed production profits, leading to a slight decline in factory profitability.

4. Market Forecast for Next Week

Based on supply-demand conditions, costs and other factors, the domestic POM spot market is expected to remain in a wait-and-see consolidation trend next week, with a low probability of significant price fluctuations.

Supply sideYankuang Luhua’s unit is expected to restart operations, while Xinjiang Guoye has maintenance plans. With one increase and one decrease, the industry’s overall supply is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with no significant increase or decrease in available supply.

Demand sideShort-term terminal just-in-time replenishment or a slight increase may occur, but the traditional off-season is gradually setting in. Downstream fabricated product orders are gradually weakening, and medium- to long-term demand is under downward pressure, making it difficult to drive the market higher.

Cost sideThe raw material methanol fluctuated narrowly within a limited range, causing only weak disturbance to the cost side of POM and making it difficult to drive costs.

Macroeconomic fundamentalsThe peripheral disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts continue to fade, and the market’s pricing focus is returning to its own supply-demand fundamentals.

Focus on the following.

Supply: production start-up progress at Yankuang Luhua, implementation of maintenance at Xinjiang Guoye, and changes in industry operating rates.

Downstream essential restocking implementation status; the pace of off-season order decline.

Cost: Real-time methanol price fluctuations and changes in POM production gross profit.