[POM Daily Review] Tepid Pre-Holiday Inquiry Atmosphere, Weak Market Transactions

1. Today's Summary

The 80,000-ton/year POM unit at Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is operating smoothly.

②、 The 60,000 tons/year POM unit at Hebi Longyu will be shut down for maintenance on October 20, with the startup time to be determined. 。

2 Current Spot Overview

Based on the Yuyao region, Yun Tianhua's M90 is priced at 11,100 RMB/ton today, with the price remaining stable compared to the previous period. Today's POM MarketConsolidation in a sideways market. With the New Year holiday approaching, the atmosphere of wait-and-see is strong across various regions. The fundamentals provide strong support, and petrochemical plants currently have no pressure to sell. However, end users are resistant to high prices, leading to relatively weak purchasing intentions. Traders are looking to negotiate and are flexible in their transactions.As of the market close, the tax-inclusive price of domestic POM in the Yuyao market is 8,400-11,300 yuan/ton, while the cash price of POM in the Dongguan market is 7,800-10,400 yuan/ton.

3 Production Dynamics

This week, the domestic POM capacity utilization rate is 80.82%, an increase of 1.24% compared to last week. Yankuang Luhua's Phase I POM unit maintains over 90% operating rate. Hebi Longyu The startup time of Tianjin Bohua's POM plant is yet to be determined. The maintenance loss this week has decreased. This week, methanol prices have declined while POM prices remain stable. The product's gross profit margin has increased, with the profit margin rising by 148 yuan per ton.

Figure 3: Trend Chart of Domestic POM Capacity Utilization Rate for 2024-2025	Figure 4: Comparison of Domestic POM Profit and Price in 2025 (Yuan/Ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

4. Price Prediction

As the New Year holiday approaches, the shipment market in various regions is slowing down, and petrochemical plants are at low inventory levels, with no short-term pressure on shipments. The fundamentals are relatively stable; however, it is difficult to sell at high prices, and traders are relatively lackluster in their operations. Some quoted prices allow for a certain degree of negotiation, while end users mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach, showing no interest in restocking before the holiday, leading to limited trading activity. Longzhong predicts that the domestic POM market will observe and consolidate in the short term.

5 Related Product Information:

MethanolToday's methanol spot price index is 1963.00, an increase of 6.65. The spot price in Taicang is 2182, up by 32, and the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line is 1800, unchanged. According to Longzhong's monitoring of prices in 20 large and medium-sized cities, 10 cities have seen varying degrees of increase, with the range between 15-120 yuan/ton. Today, the trading atmosphere in the domestic methanol market has improved somewhat, with futures strongly rebounding, which has bolstered buying sentiment. In the interior, after a recent fast-paced continuous decline, with the stimulation of replenishing empty stocks, just-in-time replenishment, and some inquiries from olefin producers in Inner Mongolia, most upstream companies have seen premium transactions through auctions, and the atmosphere for buying on dips is still acceptable. The upstream has seen good volume concentration, keeping a close eye on the pace of volume transfer to downstream. At the port, prices have moved up with the market, and there is active selling at high prices for distant deliveries. The basis has weakened, and attention should be paid to tomorrow's inventory changes.

6 Data Calendar

Table 2 Overview of Domestic POM Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)