[POM Daily Review] Multiple Units Under Maintenance Support Market Overall Weak and Stable Consolidation

1. Today’s Summary

The industry as a whole lacks major news to guide it, and the market is driven by supply-demand fundamentals, with no clear directional movement in prices.

On the supply side, maintenance shutdowns have increased. The complete sets of equipment in Phase I and Phase II of Yankuang Luhua, along with the Guoye unit, have all been shut down simultaneously for maintenance. In addition, some production lines at Bohua and Hengli continue to undergo maintenance, leading to a phased reduction in supply that is providing support.

Mainstream grade Yuntianhua M90 quotations across regions remained broadly unchanged. Inquiries in the market were quiet, high-priced cargoes were difficult to transact, and downstream end-users were strongly waiting on the sidelines.

The methanol raw material market shows regional differentiation, with coastal prices rising and slight declines in some inland areas; the industry's capacity utilization rate has increased slightly, and profit margins have narrowed slightly.

II. Spot Market Overview

(I) Spot prices in various regions remained stable.

Quotations for Yuntianhua M90 remained unchanged across the three regions of Yuyao, Dongguan, and North China, with the benchmark reference price in Yuyao at RMB 12,500/ton. The overall market remained range-bound, and price spreads among different grades stayed stable. In Yuyao, the tax-inclusive price range for all domestically produced POM grades was RMB 8,800–13,000/ton, while in Dongguan, the cash transaction price range was RMB 8,000–12,500/ton.

The overall inquiry atmosphere in the market is subdued, and it is difficult for high-priced supplies to translate into actual orders. Traders are flexible in their room for negotiation. Downstream factories remain cautious in their purchasing stance, with no plans for concentrated restocking, and all transactions rely on small, demand-based orders, leaving the overall market trading pace relatively slow.

II. Equipment Startup, Production Volume, and Profitability

Although Yanzhou Coal's Lu Hua, Guoye, and other facilities have undergone maintenance reductions, overall production slightly increased. The production for this period reached 12,970 tons, a small increase of 160 tons compared to the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.73%, a slight rise of 0.17%. Tianjin Bohua has been under long-term maintenance since July, and one production line at Hengli remains in a maintenance state; the reduction in output from maintenance has been offset by increases from other normally operating facilities.

The industry’s average apparent profit was 804 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan from the previous week. Profits narrowed slightly, but overall they remained in positive territory, so producers had no pressure to dump goods at a loss.

(3) Diverging Trends in Upstream Methanol Feedstock

The regional methanol market showed significant price divergence, with the price index edging higher. In Taicang coastal spot prices were raised by 62 yuan to 3,325 yuan, supported by continued inventory drawdowns and tightening circulating supply. In Inner Mongolia’s northern region, prices were cut by 15 yuan to 2,735 yuan, as inventories accumulated at most inland plants and buyers showed weak willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, support from the feedstock side for POM costs varied, with no strong unilateral driving force.

(4) Weekly Data Expectations

This week’s capacity utilization rate is expected to edge up to 83.56%, while production profit margins remain stable, and the supply side is generally trending slightly upward. Overall factory inventories are running at low levels, providing some support for the price floor.

III. Price Prediction

1. Short-term market outlook.

In the short term, the domestic POM market will remain weak and stable with a wait-and-see sentiment, with very limited room for either gains or declines.

Supporting factors: Concentrated maintenance shutdowns at facilities such as Yankuang Luhua and Guoye have led to reduced supply. Overall plant inventories are low, and producers have a willingness to support prices. The industry maintains positive processing margins, with no strong incentive for large-scale price cuts or dumping.

Suppressing factors: Terminal demand is weak, with insufficient inquiries and order volumes; downstream players are hesitant to stock up; some traders are resorting to discounting to move inventory and recover funds, putting pressure on high price quotes; the regional differentiation of methanol raw materials has failed to create a comprehensive boost in costs.

2. Regional Price Performance

Prices of mainstream grades across various regions remained generally stable with slight fluctuations. In Yuyao, Yuntianhua M90 held steady in the range of RMB 12,400–12,600/ton, while East China and North China followed the stable trend. Niche low-end grades were negotiated with slight flexibility, with smaller fluctuations than mainstream materials.

3. Risk Warning

If methanol rises significantly across the board, the increased costs may lead to a slight rise in POM; however, if maintenance facilities resume operations ahead of schedule, the increase in supply could exert downward pressure on the market. A recovery in orders from downstream automotive parts and home appliances could provide temporary support to the market. This article is for basic market analysis only and does not constitute trading or investment advice.