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Polyethylene Monthly Review: Supply Pressure Eases, Most Grades Edge Higher in February 2026

Plastmatch 2026-02-28 16:56:38

In February 2026, under the influence of easing supply pressure and supported by cost factors, prices for most varieties in the domestic polyethylene market showed a slight upward trend, with different categories experiencing varied price fluctuations.

From the core production and import data of this month, the polyethylene production in February decreased by 4.98% month-on-month to 2.9067 million tons; the import volume was 1.041 million tons, a decrease of 7.05% month-on-month. It is expected that the import volume for the next period will increase to 1.106 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.24%.

This month, market conditions were significantly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, presenting a pattern of “reduced supply and weak demand.” While producers maintained high operating rates, downstream factories shut down for the holiday, causing polyethylene inventory to accumulate passively to 597,800 tons—a sharp 23.26% increase from the previous period and the highest level recorded this year. Although total supply declined by 5.53% to 3.9477 million tons compared to the prior period, demand remained sluggish, with the average operating rate of downstream enterprises dropping 18.26% to just 21.6%. Orders in key application sectors such as agricultural films and packaging films contracted, and market procurement remained largely driven by immediate, essential needs; social inventory digestion progressed slowly. Even though some factories gradually resumed operations around the time of the Lantern Festival, the pace of demand recovery still lagged behind supply release, keeping market trading activity consistently low.

Looking ahead to March 2026, the polyethylene market is expected to continue a narrow upward trend. On the supply side, domestic capacity utilization is expected to decrease by 2.41% month-on-month, but total supply will still increase by 6.7% compared to the previous month. On the demand side, traditional downstream sectors such as packaging films and agricultural films are expected to see a recovery driven by seasonal factors, with production rates gradually rising. Export volumes are expected to increase by 61.9% month-on-month, driving a 9% rise in total demand. The supply-demand structure will continue to optimize, with the supply-demand gap expected to decrease by 29.35% to 12.42 ten thousand tons. Considering the changes in both supply and demand, the polyethylene price in March is expected to rise slightly, supported by reduced supply pressure and a moderate demand recovery. The price of LLDPE is expected to rise to 6880 yuan per ton.

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Polyethylene Monthly Review: Supply Pressure Eases, Most Grades Edge Higher in February 2026

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