Polyamide Market Under Pressure in April Amid Dual Headwinds of Inventory and Demand

I. Analysis of This Month’s Market Performance

The domestic PA6 chip market in China showed an overall trend of rising first and then falling in April, with significant price fluctuations in regional markets. The average price of conventional spun PA6 chips in the East China region this month was 12,960.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,544.9 yuan/ton compared to 10,415.63 yuan/ton in the previous month, a monthly increase of 24.43%, and a year-on-year increase of 27.01% compared to 10,204.55 yuan/ton in the same period last year. The average price of high-speed spun PA6 chips in the East China region this month was 13,484.21 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,765.46 yuan/ton compared to 10,718.75 yuan/ton in the previous month, a monthly increase of 25.80%, and a year-on-year increase of 23.97% compared to 10,877.27 yuan/ton in the same period last year.

From the performance of regular spinning chips, at the beginning of the month, due to the firm market price of caprolactam, the cost pressure on polymerization plants increased. Coupled with the continuous tension in the Middle East, under the influence of multiple favorable factors, some polymerization enterprises raised the ex-factory price of chips. However, as the geopolitical situation gradually eased, the market sentiment changed, and the demand for chips from downstream gradually decreased. The inventory level of polymerization plants significantly increased, and there were still low-priced goods circulating among traders, further weakening market confidence. Under the game between bulls and bears, the transaction price of chips showed a significant decline. As of April 28, the price of regular spinning PA6 ordinary chips in the East China market was 12,600-13,000 yuan/ton, cash on delivery; the spot price of high-quality chips in the East China market was 13,000-13,200 yuan/ton, cash on pickup; some low-price chips were around 12,200 yuan/ton, cash on pickup.

The market for high-speed spinning PA6 chips also exhibited a trend of rising initially and then declining. At the beginning of the month, chip prices edged up slightly, driven by strong cost-side support, while stable operating rates at most filament spinning mills provided a certain floor to chip prices from the demand side. In mid-month, the easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation triggered a sharp drop in international crude oil prices, leading to a decline in benzene futures prices. Consequently, market sentiment for chips weakened, pessimism gradually spread, downstream filament mills reduced raw material purchases, and polymerization enterprises saw their finished goods inventories gradually accumulate. Amid this mixed bullish and bearish sentiment, chip transaction prices began to fall. As of April 28, the spot price for standard-grade high-speed spinning PA6 chips in the East China market stood at RMB 12,900–13,500/ton (cash ex-factory); the spot price for premium-grade high-speed spinning PA6 chips in the East China market was RMB 13,600–14,000/ton (bill of exchange, delivered); and some low-priced supplies from northern regions were available at RMB 13,100–13,300/ton (cash, delivered).

II. Market Forecast for Next Month

The PA6 market price in May is expected to decline compared to the average price in April. On the cost side, caprolactam supply is projected to increase, with overall production exceeding polymerization demand, thereby weakening cost support for PA6 chips. On the demand side, order intake from downstream polymerization customers remains limited, and market participants are largely adopting a wait-and-see stance. Additionally, chip producers’ inventories are at high levels, enhancing their willingness to offload stock and further suppressing upward price momentum. Overall, the average price for standard-spun PA6 chips in the East China market in May is expected to be RMB 12,800/ton (cash payment, short-distance delivery), while the average price for high-speed-spun chips is expected to be RMB 13,500/ton (bill of exchange payment, delivered).