Polyamide 66 Weekly Review: Costs Remain High, Market Prices Rise Steadily

Key Market Highlights This Week

This week, the polyamide 66 (PA66) market was primarily driven by the cost side, with the average prices of raw materials, adipic acid and hexamethylenediamine, rising sharply, leading to continued increasing cost pressure in the industry. Downstream industries have gradually resumed production and operations, with procurement activities mainly focused on spot inventory replenishment, without large-scale centralized procurement. Supply side remained stable, with this week's PA66 production reaching 21,800 tons, and the industry's capacity utilization rate maintained at 74%. Spot supply was sufficient and stable, with no shortage of available goods.

II. This Week's Market Analysis

This week, the spot price of PA66 in the East China region rose strongly, with the weekly average price reaching 19,030 RMB/ton, an increase of about 13.75% from last week, a significant rise. During this period, due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil prices fluctuated significantly and remained strong overall, driving the core raw materials, adipic acid and hexamethylenediamine, to oscillate at high levels. Since March, the price of adipic acid has risen by more than 21%. The strong support from the cost end has pushed up the overall price of the PA66 industry chain. Affected by cost pressures, polymerization companies are clearly reluctant to sell at low prices, and some manufacturers have taken measures to suspend quotations, which has significantly tightened the supply of low-priced goods in the market, further boosting the rise in prices. In the middle of the week, due to the lack of confidence in the future market trend, early profit-taking positions released their stocks at a discount, resulting in a price inversion in the market. The trading atmosphere showed a differentiated trend, with some demand-backed purchases supporting low-price transactions, while high-priced goods struggled to sell. It is worth noting that the cost of raw materials for PA66 accounts for more than 75%, and this sharp rise in raw material prices has directly led to a dramatic increase in the cost pressure on enterprises, especially for polymerization plants without upstream hexamethylenediamine facilities, which are even more vulnerable to risks.

III. Market Forecast for Next Week

It is expected that the domestic PA66 market will maintain a high-level operating trend in the short term, with limited price fluctuation. Focus on the three core factors:

Supply side: Current polymer enterprises are facing significant cost pressure, with a low willingness to cut prices and a stronger mindset to maintain market stability; however, a considerable amount of low-priced goods from previous periods remain in the market, and the phenomenon of profit-taking players offering discounts to offload inventory is expected to continue increasing, which will alleviate upward price pressure to some extent, keeping the overall supply pattern stable.

Demand side: Although downstream industries continue to resume production and operations, they have low acceptance of the current high prices, adopt a cautious procurement attitude, and mainly purchase on an as-needed basis, making it difficult to generate large-scale procurement enthusiasm; thus, demand provides limited support to prices.

Cost side: Key upstream raw materials such as hexamethylenediamine and adipic acid are expected to remain at elevated levels with continued volatility. Coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, international crude oil prices are likely to stay firm, providing sustained cost-driven support throughout the PA66 value chain and effectively limiting significant price declines.

Overall, the cost-supporting factor and profit-taking selling are in a tug-of-war; downstream demand-driven procurement is insufficient to drive prices significantly higher. Therefore, the PA66 market is expected to trade in a high-range consolidation next week, with key focus on fluctuations in raw material prices and changes in downstream procurement willingness.