[pmma daily review] raw material plummets, market continues weak downtrend

1. Today's Summary

Today, the domestic PMMA resin market remained weak, with overall trading activity sluggish. The upstream key raw material MMA declined sharply, causing cost support to collapse completely. Operating rates across the industry stayed at a low level, with domestic PMMA resin capacity utilization at only 43%. Finished goods supply in the market was ample, while producers continued to build up inventories and faced mounting shipment pressure. Downstream end-user demand remained sluggish, with purchases driven mainly by rigid needs and buyers generally pressing for lower prices in negotiations. New order follow-through was weak, and market prices continued to fluctuate downward.

2. Spot Market Overview

In terms of spot prices, taking the East China market as the benchmark, the mainstream negotiated price range for PMMA pellets is RMB 11,200–15,300/mt. Low-end grades fell sharply by RMB 800/mt, a decline of 6.67%, while prices for high-end transparent grades remained stable. Upstream raw material trends were mixed: East China MMA spot prices dropped sharply by RMB 350/mt to RMB 9,850/mt, down 3.43%; methyl acrylate prices remained stable, with mainstream quotations at RMB 8,500/mt, making it difficult to provide bottom support.

From the perspective of market trading, the continued decline in MMA feedstock prices has been dragging down the downstream pellet market, leaving industry cost support relatively weak. At present, manufacturers are facing severe inventory buildup and have a strong willingness to sell for cash. Downstream product factories show no intention to stock up, only maintaining sporadic purchases for rigid demand, while generally making low-price counteroffers. Bearish sentiment is spreading among traders, who are cutting prices in line with the market to move cargoes. Overall, actual transactions in the market remain thin.

3. Production Updates

The domestic PMMA industry is operating at a low load, with the current overall capacity utilization rate at 43%, a decrease of 3 percentage points compared to the previous period. Most facilities in the industry are maintaining low-load operations, with no concentrated maintenance or resumption of production actions. The overall supply of goods in the industry is sufficient, coupled with weak downstream demand, resulting in a continuous accumulation of finished product inventory, leading to significant destocking pressure for production enterprises.

4. Market Sentiment

Bearish sentiment dominates the entire industrial chain. Upstream producers are burdened with high inventories and are forced to offer concessions to move cargo; traders are pessimistic about the market outlook, unwilling to build stocks, and instead operate on a quick-in, quick-out basis; downstream end-users hold strong expectations of further price declines, insisting on hard bargaining for just-in-time purchases and avoiding the risk of stocking up at high prices. A strong wait-and-see mood prevails across the whole supply chain, with no bullish trading logic for the time being, and the market center of gravity continues to move downward.

5. Market Forecast

In the short term, the domestic PMMA particle market is expected to remain in a weak downward trend, with the center of negotiations still having room to move lower. The key bearish factor is that the main feedstock, MMA, is still likely to decline further, leaving continued weakness in cost support. Meanwhile, producers are facing high inventory levels, and destocking pressure is forcing them to cut prices to stimulate sales. On the demand side, the off-season is unlikely to see any meaningful recovery, and the logic of downstream buyers pressing for lower prices remains unchanged. Overall, the market is expected to stay weak in the near term, with transaction prices continuing to hover at low levels.

(The above analysis is based on publicly available market data and is for reference only, not investment advice.)