[PMMA Daily Review] Operating Rates Decline, Demand Remains Weak, and the Market Trades in a Range-bound Stalemate

1. Today's Summary

The domestic PMMA particle market is undergoing overall fluctuations and consolidation. The lower limit of mainstream quotations in East China has been slightly adjusted downward, while the overall quotation range has shifted slightly. The price difference between high and low ends remains stable.

The industry's production load has declined, with the daily capacity utilization rate dropping to 50%, a decrease of 3 percentage points compared to the previous period. The contraction in industry operations has resulted in a slight reduction in supply.

Core raw material MMA edged down slightly, while methyl acrylate prices remained flat. Cost-side fluctuations were minimal, and manufacturers had a low willingness to adjust prices.

Market trading is very subdued, with downstream buyers clearly bidding aggressively lower prices. Transactions are limited to small orders for immediate needs, and overall supply and demand remain in a stalemate, making a unilateral price rise or fall unlikely in the short term.

II. Spot Market Overview

(I) Spot and Raw Material Price Quotations

Today, East China PMMA particles are trading in the range of RMB 12,500–15,600/ton, compared with RMB 12,800–15,600/ton on the previous day. The low-end quotation has been lowered, while the high-end price remains unchanged, with overall listed price fluctuations being limited. Upstream raw materials are showing mixed trends: the East China MMA price fell by RMB 50 to RMB 12,350/ton, while methyl acrylate remained stable at RMB 8,700/ton.

Market trading sentiment was sluggish, and high offers from holders lacked buying support. Transactions were mainly conducted through buyers’ bids and negotiations. Downstream end-users remained cautious in procurement, generally lowering their counteroffer prices, with no bulk restocking activity. Most actual deals in the market were scattered rigid-demand orders to maintain production, and overall trading volume showed no improvement.

(II) Start-up and Operation Status of the Unit

The industry capacity utilization rate has dropped to 50%, a decrease of 3 percentage points compared to the previous period. Some facilities have reduced output or undergone minor maintenance, leading to a slight contraction in market supply. However, the demand side has weakened even more, and the reduction in operating rates has not effectively reversed the weak supply-demand balance. Manufacturers lack the confidence to maintain prices and can only negotiate sales based on market conditions.

(III) Weekly Data Preview

Core operating data for the industry is set to be released this week. PMMA capacity utilization is expected to continue weakening, and industry profits are also trending downward. Narrowing profit margins will limit producers’ room to cut prices aggressively to sell off inventory, but it is still not enough to support a proactive price increase. The market is likely to remain largely stable and stagnant.

III. Price Forecast

1. Short-term overall market outlook

The short-term PMMA particle continuation range shows fluctuating patterns, with insufficient momentum for both significant rises and falls.

Supporting factors: The fluctuation range of MMA raw materials is small, and the cost bottom line is stable; the operating rate continues to decline, leading to a slight contraction in supply; although manufacturers' profits have decreased, there is currently no pressure for deep losses, and the willingness to offer significant discounts is not strong.

Suppressing factors: End-user demand remains sluggish, downstream buyers are strongly inclined to push prices down, and bulk orders are lacking; market transaction volume is difficult to increase, traders’ need to move inventory dominates the market, and high-priced cargoes are difficult to circulate.

2. Price Range Forecast for Market Movement

Mainstream particle prices in East China remained rangebound at RMB 12,500–15,600/tonne, with the price spread between low- and high-end grades staying stable and intraday fluctuations capped within RMB 100. Other regions followed East China in a similar stalemate, with no independent upward or downward movements.

3. Risk Warning

If MMA feedstock prices fluctuate sharply, they will drive volatility on the cost side of pellets and disrupt the current range-bound balance. If downstream optical and sheet industries engage in concentrated restocking, increased transaction volumes could push prices slightly higher. This analysis is only a fundamental logic deduction and does not constitute trading or investment advice.