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[PET Weekly Review] Geopolitical Cooling Leads to Cost Collapse, Bottle Sheet Sees Significant Correction and Weak Performance

Plastmatch 2026-05-28 17:58:43

I. Market Focus This Week

This week, domestic polyester bottle-grade chips were under overall downward pressure, with the core influencing factors concentrated in two dimensions: raw materials and production. The industry’s overall capacity utilization rate reached 72.35%, indicating a steady release of supply from the production side. On the raw material side, the PTA industry’s operating rate was 59.63%, and equipment operating loads remained relatively low. Coupled with the easing of tensions in the Middle East, which triggered a pullback in crude oil prices, and the expectation of looser supply brought by new plant startups, downstream demand remained sluggish. Under the combined impact of multiple bearish factors, market prices saw a significant correction.

II. This Week’s Market Analysis

During this period (May 22–May 28), domestic PET bottle chip market prices fell sharply, with bearish sentiment dominating the trading atmosphere. As of this Thursday, the weekly average spot price of water-bottle-grade PET bottle chips in the East China market was RMB 8,410/ton, down RMB 504/ton from the previous week, a decline of 5.65%.

In terms of market trends, the Middle East situation eased continuously during the week, causing international crude oil prices to fluctuate and decline from high levels. The rapid weakening of cost support across the industrial chain directly triggered a correction in polyester bottle chip prices. Meanwhile, new industry units commenced production as scheduled, intensifying market expectations of a looser supply-demand balance ahead and further amplifying bearish sentiment. Demand underperformed expectations, with end-users strongly resistant to previously high raw material prices, maintaining purchases only at just-needed levels, resulting in low overall restocking willingness and a lackluster trading atmosphere. Coupled with the persistent decline in futures markets, spot prices accelerated their downward movement. Approaching the weekend, localized geopolitical tensions slightly rebounded, briefly strengthening raw material prices. However, downstream purchasing sentiment remained cautious, leaving polyester bottle chip spot prices weak in response, and the overall bearish pattern unbroken.

[PET瓶级周评]:中东局势缓和，聚酯瓶片市场大幅回调（20260522-0528)

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

Production and Supply SideDuring this period, the production of polyester bottle chips was 332,000 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons compared to the previous period. The industry's capacity utilization rate was 71.70%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous period. Overall production continues to grow steadily, and with the gradual commissioning of new capacity, market supply has slightly increased. The expectation of a loose supply-demand balance is gradually being realized, which continues to put downward pressure on prices.
Cost and Profit SideThis week, the average polymerization cost of polyester bottle flakes was RMB 6,848.83/ton, down RMB 403.59/ton from the previous week, a decline of 5.56%. Affected by the pullback in raw material prices, production costs fell significantly. The industry’s average weekly profit was RMB 961.17/ton, down RMB 100.4/ton month-on-month, with profit margins narrowing accordingly. The weakening cost side was both the core driver behind this round of price declines and an indirect reflection of the overall downturn across the industry chain.
Demand SideAlthough it is currently the traditional peak consumption season, bottle-grade PET chip prices remain relatively high, and both end-users and traders lack strong willingness for large-scale stockpiling. In terms of specific sectors, downstream soft drink producers are operating at 80%-100% capacity, providing basic support for rigid demand; oil factories are expected to increase operating rates to around 65%, with slight improvement in demand; however, the PET sheet industry, affected by high prices, has generally switched to alternative raw materials, further diverting demand away from bottle-grade chips. Overall, the domestic market is mainly focused on replenishing essential supplies, lacking the boost from incremental orders.

IV. Later-stage Forecasting

Supply Forecast

Next week, the overall industry supply is expected to increase slightly. Zhejiang Tiansheng’s 200,000-ton-per-year unit has already produced premium-grade product, and output in June will be released steadily. Chongqing Wankai plans to reduce load by 10% due to tight natural gas supply; the localized production cut will find it difficult to offset the additional capacity increment. Meanwhile, close attention should be paid to the restart progress of the two units at Anyang Chemical and Hanjiang New Materials, as changes in these facilities will continue to affect the flow of regional supply.

(ii) Demand Forecasting

The market is still in the consumption peak season, but the price of bottle-grade PET has not yet fallen back to the low range, and both end-users and traders are cautious about stockpiling. Downstream soft drink and oil factories are operating with a differentiated approach, while demand remains stable due to essential needs. The phenomenon of substitution in the PET sheet industry continues, making it difficult to see an increase in demand. Overall, domestic trade still mainly focuses on replenishing essential needs. Additionally, at this stage, shipping costs have risen, and shipping space is tight, leading to a decrease in foreign trade orders compared to earlier periods, with external demand support also weakening.

(3) Cost Forecast

The market generally expects the situation between the United States and Iran to continue easing, leaving room for further declines in international crude oil prices, which in turn may drive down the prices of upstream raw materials such as PTA and MEG. As a result, cost support for polyester bottle chips is likely to remain weak.

Market Trend Prediction

Overall, considering the slight increase in supply, simultaneously weak domestic and foreign demand, and pressure on the cost side, it is expected that the domestic polyester bottle chip market will remain stable next week.Fluctuating weaklyIn the East China market, the mainstream trading range for bottle-grade PET resin is observed at 8150-8500 yuan/ton, with flexible negotiations for actual orders, and market activity remains relatively sluggish.

V. Key Focus Areas

Supply side: the restart progress of Anyang Chemical and Hanjiang New Materials units, and changes in operating rates at Zhejiang Tiansheng and Chongqing Wankai units.
Demand side: Operating rates in downstream industries, terminal replenishment rhythm, and changes in foreign trade orders.
Cost side: Fluctuations in international crude oil, PTA, and other raw material prices, changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
Distribution side: the impact of ocean freight rates and shipping space availability on foreign trade shipments.

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