[pet weekly review] cost weakens and demand restrains, bottle sheets fluctuate and adjust

I. Key Market Focuses This Week

On the production side, the overall capacity utilization rate of China’s PET bottle chip industry was 71.90%, with plant output being steadily released.

Raw materials: The upstream PTA industry operating rate is 64.99%, and changes in supply and demand on the raw material side continue to affect bottle chip costs.

II. Market Analysis

During this period (May 29–June 4, 2026), China’s domestic polyester bottle chip market fluctuated and trended downward overall. As of this Thursday, the weekly average spot price of water-grade polyester bottle chips in East China was RMB 8,311/ton, down RMB 99/ton from the previous week, a decline of 1.18%.

The geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are gradually easing, leading to a decline in international oil prices, which in turn pulls down PTA and ethylene glycol prices, significantly weakening the cost support for bottle-grade PET. On the supply side, there is a slight increase in inventory. Although the market has entered the traditional peak season for beverage stocking, the end-users show a strong aversion to high-priced raw materials, with procurement limited to just-in-time replenishment. Speculative stocking demand in the market is absent, and traders and downstream buyers are cautious about taking on inventory. Meanwhile, rising shipping costs and weakening overseas demand have resulted in a continuous reduction in foreign trade orders, leading to synchronized declines in domestic and international demand. Under the dual pressure of falling costs and weak demand, the focus on polyester bottle-grade PET is experiencing a downward fluctuation, and the industry's processing profits are significantly compressed.

III. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

Supply-side volume expansionIn this cycle, total polyester bottle chip output was 335.6 thousand tons, up 3.6 thousand tons month-on-month, an increase of 1.08%; the industry capacity utilization rate reached 72.09%, up 0.39 percentage points from the previous period. Higher operating rates at production facilities steadily increased supply, adding pressure to spot market circulation.

Cost and profit compressionThis week, the average polymerization cost of PET bottle-grade chips was RMB 7,016.67/ton, up RMB 167.84/ton week on week, a rise of 2.45%; the industry’s average weekly profit was RMB 694.33/ton, down RMB 266.8/ton week on week. With raw material prices declining but polymerization costs edging up slightly, and product selling prices also weakening, profitability among producers has been noticeably squeezed by pressure from both sides.

IV. Post-forecast Prediction

Supply Forecast

Zhejiang Tiansheng’s 200,000-ton unit is planned to ramp up to full operating rates, and total industry output is estimated to reach around 336,300 tons next week. The gradual commissioning of new capacity will bring potential supply increases, and continued attention should be paid to the pace at which new industry units come on stream.

Demand Forecasting

Although the market is in the traditional peak consumption season, weak end-user replenishment sentiment due to geopolitical factors and high prices has made just-in-time procurement the mainstream. Performance varies across downstream segments: operating rates in the soft drink sector remain at 80%–90%, providing basic support for rigid demand; operating rates in the edible oil filling sector have fallen to around 56%; and in the PET sheet sector, bottle-grade PET prices remain high, prompting widespread adoption of alternative materials, which has further diverted bottle-grade PET purchasing volume.

Cost Forecasting

With the broader backdrop of easing tensions between the US and Iran unchanged, international crude oil prices are expected to move lower. Going forward, upstream raw material prices such as PTA and ethylene glycol are likely to continue declining, and support from the cost side for PET bottle chips will remain weak.

Market trend prediction

The expectation of new production capacity coming online, combined with increased supply pressure, alongside lackluster domestic and external demand and a continuous decline in costs, has led to a convergence of multiple negative factors. It is expected that the polyester bottle chip market will continue its downward trend next week, with the mainstream trading range for water bottle material in East China.8,000–8,300 yuan/ton。

Key focus

Supply: Zhejiang Tiansheng full-load fulfillment progress, domestic new unit production and weekly output changes.

Demand: Beverage, fluctuations in oil plant operations, sheet replacement situation, and foreign trade order data.

Costs: fluctuations in international crude oil prices, changes in PTA and EG prices, and developments in the geopolitical situation.