[Pet Bottle-Grade Weekly Review] Major Factories Reduce Contracts, Chip Prices Continue to Rise Strongly

I. This Week’s Market Focus Points

The production capacity utilization rate of the polyester bottle chip industry this week is 71.75%; the operating rate of the upstream PTA industry is 78.40%, with the raw material side providing certain cost support to the market.

II. Market Analysis

This week, the market price of PET bottle-grade chip surged significantly. As of Thursday, the weekly average spot price for water-bottle-grade PET chip in East China reached RMB 7,884 per metric ton, up RMB 1,338 per metric ton from last week, representing a 20.44% increase. Upstream feedstocks experienced production cuts and reduced operating rates due to Middle East geopolitical tensions and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This, combined with major producers proactively reducing contract volumes and strong seasonal demand from end-users, has fueled bullish market sentiment and driven prices sharply higher. In the short term, market volatility remains high, causing downstream buyers to adopt a cautious approach, resulting in relatively weak trading activity overall.

III. Analysis of Market Impact Factors

In terms of output, the production of polyester bottle chips this week was 32.32, an increase of 0.64 compared to last week, with an increase of 2.02%.

Regarding profit and cost, according to the cost model calculation, the average weekly profit for PET bottle-grade chips this week was RMB 216.42 per metric ton, an increase of RMB 230.3 per metric ton week-on-week; the average weekly polymerization cost was RMB 7,067.58 per metric ton, rising by RMB 1,107.83 per metric ton, or 18.59%, compared to last week, indicating significant cost-driven pressure.

IV. Post-Release Market Forecast

Supply Side: Supply slightly increased this week, as a 1.2-million-ton unit in East China gradually ramped up to full operating rates, while a 200,000-ton unit was shut down this week. Another 200,000-ton unit is scheduled for shutdown next week. However, major producers have reduced contract volumes, leading to tight availability of spot supply in the market.

Demand side: Downstream demand is gradually recovering, entering the peak purchasing season. The operating rate of the soft drinks industry is maintained at 70-80%, the operating rate of oil plants is expected to increase to around 61%, and the operating rate of the PET sheet industry is in the 60-70% range, with demand-side support strengthening.

Cost side: Crude oil and PX are expected to rise, while PTA faces limited upward momentum due to inventory accumulation pressure; overall, the cost side remains supportive.

Market trend: Under the combined effect of tight supply and recovering terminal demand, the polyester bottle resin market is expected to rise in a fluctuating manner. The spot price of water bottle material in the East China market is expected to move to 8400-9000 yuan/ton.