[PBT Weekly Review] Raw Material Prices Diverge, Off-Season Demand Weighs on the Market, and the Downtrend Continues

1. Market Overview for This Week

In this period (May 29 to June 4, 2026), the domestic PBT market continued its downward trend, with price levels continuously declining, highlighting the weak characteristics of the off-season. As of the end of this week, the mainstream transaction range for medium and low viscosity PBT resin in East China was between 9,300 and 9,800 yuan/ton, with an average price this week down 300 yuan/ton compared to last week, a decrease of 3.06%.

The feedstock market showed a mixed trend. Repeated geopolitical disruptions continued to affect the market: differences remained in U.S.-Iran negotiations, geopolitical frictions recurred, and uncertainty persisted on the crude oil supply side. This provided periodic support to sentiment across the industrial chain and drove PTA prices higher this week. However, another key feedstock, BDO, performed weakly. Actual industry demand was sluggish, market participants maintained a bearish buying and selling mentality, and prices continued to decline. Overall, PBT raw materials showed divergent movements; comprehensive production costs remained relatively high, and the cost side failed to provide effective downward concessions.

The demand side has become the main bearish factor in this week's market. As the traditional off-season of the industry fully arrives, downstream product enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm continues to decline, with a widespread wait-and-see attitude and no concentrated stockpiling actions. Coupled with the gradual accumulation of overall market inventory pressure, there is insufficient support for spot prices. Under the dual pressure of weak demand and high inventory, the PBT market price continues to decline, and overall trading in the market is relatively quiet, primarily consisting of small transactions based on just-in-time needs.

II. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1. Terminal demand remains insufficient, leading to a downward trend in prices.

The downstream PBT sector has officially entered the traditional demand off-season, with weak follow-up of end-user orders and operating rates at product manufacturers remaining low. Downstream enterprises are mainly consuming existing inventories, with limited new purchasing volumes. Rigid demand support in the market is weak, and overall purchasing sentiment is cautious, directly leading to continued pressure and declines in spot prices. This is the core factor behind the fall in PBT prices this week.

2. Industry operating rates remain relatively stable, with steady supply pressure.

This week, domestic PBT enterprises operated relatively smoothly, with industry capacity utilization rates fluctuating little. Overall, the supply of goods remained stable, with no significant increase or decrease. There were no obvious positive or negative disturbances on the supply side, which is not the main reason for the current price decline. Market fluctuations are mainly driven by the demand side.

3. The off-season effect has fully fermented, and market transactions continue to be weak.

The characteristics of the off-season market have become even more pronounced. Downstream buyers are generally reluctant to purchase, showing obvious resistance to high-priced raw materials, and there is a lack of active stockpiling in the market. Coupled with the steady accumulation of market inventories, support for spot prices continues to weaken, leaving the overall market in a subdued state and extending the downward trend.

III. Market Forecast for Next Week

From the supply side, changes in domestic PBT units are limited. Zhejiang Changhong continues to operate at a low load, while Jiangsu Changchun and Yizheng Chemical Fiber each plan to shut down one production line for maintenance in mid-June. In the short term, capacity increases and reductions in the industry will basically offset each other. The overall PBT capacity utilization rate is expected to see little change in the next period, with supply remaining relatively stable.

On the demand side, the off-season pattern is unlikely to improve quickly. Orders from downstream end-users remain weak, and enterprises are cautious in procurement, mostly adopting a strategy of small-volume restocking on dips. There is no expectation of concentrated inventory replenishment, making it difficult for demand to provide effective support. Given the fundamentals of divergent raw material price movements, unstable cost support, and persistently weak demand, the PBT market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with prices still facing downside potential.

IV. Key Focus Areas

1. Supply Side: Continuously track the operating status of PBT production enterprises, the progress of maintenance, and changes in market inventory.

2. Demand side: focus on the impact of downstream operating rates and changes in procurement intentions on overall demand during the traditional off-season.

3. Cost side: Closely monitor fluctuations in PTA, BDO, and crude oil prices, and assess the extent to which changes in raw material prices are transmitted to PBT prices.