[Pbt Weekly Review] Price Strongly Rises, Industry Turns Profitable

A. Market Performance Review for This Week

This week, the PBT market in East China saw a significant price increase. The main closing prices for medium and low viscosity PBT resin ranged from 10,000 to 11,500 yuan per ton, and the industry successfully turned a profit. From the cost perspective, the shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has continued to intensify supply risks. Although the International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserves, the plan will be implemented in stages and no specific schedule has been announced, resulting in limited market relief. Due to the Middle East geopolitical situation, the price of PTA showed a volatile trend this week, with a cumulative increase of more than 1,000 yuan per ton. The BDO water market slightly strengthened and fluctuated, as multiple sets of facilities were under maintenance, leading to tight supply. In addition, the PBT industry had been in a long-term loss situation, and the suppliers' determination to support prices remained strong, continuously driving the price upward. On the supply side, due to the significant rise in raw material prices, the PBT plant operating rate was insufficient, and the market supply increased slowly. Although the demand side is in a recovery phase, the sharp price increase of PBT has significantly weakened the downstream purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in a generally cautious market sentiment, with only limited spot transactions maintained at high levels.

II. Market Influencing Factors Analysis

On the supply side, with raw material prices remaining high and a lackluster order performance, the enthusiasm of PBT producers to operate their facilities is low, resulting in a slow recovery of supply. This further supports the upward trend in market prices.

On the demand side, downstream enterprises are primarily focused on digesting their existing inventories and show limited willingness to accept the current high PBT prices. New orders are mostly concentrated in high-end, essential-demand sectors, resulting in generally low trading activity.

Cost side: The prices of core raw materials PTA and BDO are showing a strong trend, with PTA seeing a significant cumulative increase. BDO, due to tight supply, has a strong intention to support the market. These dual factors have led to a substantial increase in the cost pressure for PBT, becoming the core driving force behind the price increase.

III. Next Week's Market Forecast

The PBT market is expected to remain strong next week, with the industry's profit situation expected to continue improving. On the supply side, the Zhejiang Changhong plant's start-up has been delayed, and Yizheng Petrochemical's 120,000-ton production line entered maintenance in late February, with plans to resume production in mid-March. Multiple factors have limited the potential for increased PBT capacity utilization, and the supply side still has support. On the demand side, although downstream demand is gradually recovering, the significant price increase in PBT has led to a decline in purchasing willingness among downstream and end users, who are mainly making occasional purchases based on high price demand. Three key factors should be closely monitored: first, the progress of maintenance at PBT production plants, which directly affects market supply; second, the change in purchasing intention of downstream and end users after the price surge, which determines the volume of transactions; third, the cost side, with the PTA market showing a strong trend and BDO suppliers maintaining a strong stance, which together provide good support for PBT prices and help sustain the industry's profit level.