New Production Capacity Concentration Release Combined With Maintenance Off-Season Leads PVC Fourth Quarter Supply to Reach Annual High

From the industry maintenance data, it is clear that the scale of maintenance among domestic PVC production enterprises has shown a continuous declining trend for four consecutive years. Data indicates that from 2022 to 2025, the industry maintenance capacity is shrinking year by year, with the overall maintenance scale in 2025 expected to decrease by 5.68% compared to 2024, indicating a continued improvement in industry production stability. Notably, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the maintenance capacity of the PVC industry is only about 14.73 million tons, which is significantly lower than the maintenance levels in the second and third quarters of the year, and it marks the lowest value for the same period in four years since 2022. The reduction in maintenance scale is attributed, on one hand, to the upgrading and optimization of equipment processes by domestic PVC production enterprises, which has enhanced equipment operational stability and reduced the frequency of unplanned maintenance; on the other hand, the fourth quarter is a traditional peak season for chemical production, and enterprises proactively reduce maintenance plans to seize market share and improve annual capacity utilization rates, fully ensuring production continuity and laying a solid foundation for supply growth.

In terms of capacity expansion, the domestic PVC industry is set to enter a new expansion cycle by 2025. By the end of 2025, the total domestic PVC production capacity is expected to rise to 29.32 million tons, with an annual increase in capacity of 2.2 million tons. After accounting for the phasing out of outdated capacities during the year, the net increase in capacity will be 1.78 million tons. The pace of new capacity implementation shows a pattern of "gradual rollout in the early stages, with concentrated release in the fourth quarter." Most of the new capacities will complete production trials in the second and third quarters and will be fully capable of stable production by the fourth quarter, significantly enhancing the efficiency of capacity release. This batch of new capacity mainly comes from expansion projects by leading companies in the industry and the establishment of some emerging capacities. It not only further expands the industry's total capacity base but also optimizes the regional capacity layout, providing core support for increased supply in the fourth quarter.

With the continuous release of new production capacity and the reduction of maintenance scale, domestic PVC output is expected to achieve steady growth in 2025. It is estimated that the total output of PVC production enterprises will reach 24.4 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.11% compared to 2024, with the growth rate accelerating significantly compared to the previous two years. Quarterly, the output shows a trend of gradual increase, with the third quarter's output reaching 6.1087 million tons. In the fourth quarter, driven by the full release of production capacity and reduced maintenance, the output is expected to further break through to 6.2874 million tons, surpassing the third quarter level and setting a new historical high for the same period.

The significant increase in PVC supply in the fourth quarter will further alter the balance of supply and demand in the industry. For production enterprises, the concentrated release of capacity will help dilute unit production costs, but it may also intensify market competition, especially if downstream demand does not increase significantly, which could exert pressure on product prices. For downstream processing enterprises and traders, ample supply will enhance procurement options and reduce the risk of raw material shortages.

Overall, the pattern of PVC supply reaching a new high in the fourth quarter of 2025 has been basically established. The subsequent market trend will depend more on the recovery strength of demand from downstream industries such as real estate, pipes, and packaging. The industry will enter a critical stage of "supply expansion and demand testing."