Market Rises Then Falls, Traders Face Pressure In April Sales

I. Market Focus Points for This Month

In April, the domestic POM market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with regional markets performing differently; prices in the East China region increased, while prices in the South China region decreased. Traders faced significant pressure to sell, and the overall buying and selling atmosphere was muted.

② Some production facilities on the supply side have been shut down for maintenance, and manufacturers have shown strong willingness to support market prices, raising their ex-factory prices multiple times. However, weak demand has made it difficult to sustain these price increases, leading to phenomena such as high listing prices with low actual transaction prices and price inversion in the market.

Industry capacity utilization has slightly declined, while cost profit increased compared to last month. Coupled with the significant impact of the Middle East situation on imported materials, the shortage of imported material spot supplies has begun to emerge.

II. This Month's Market Analysis

The domestic POM market in China showed an overall trend of rising followed by a decline in April, with price performances showing differences across regions. The average price in the East China region was 14,100 yuan/ton this month, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from 13,600 yuan/ton in the previous month. The average price in the South China region was 12,100 yuan/ton this month, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from 12,500 yuan/ton in the previous month. The two major markets showed significant differences in their trends.

Specifically, at the beginning of the month, POM manufacturers’ inventories were at relatively low levels, and some production facilities were shut down for maintenance. With a firm market-supporting sentiment on the supply side, manufacturers consecutively raised their ex-factory prices, with increases ranging from RMB 800 to 1,400 per ton. Driven by this, market quotations cautiously followed suit with upward adjustments; however, transaction velocity across regional markets remained sluggish, and downstream users showed low purchasing enthusiasm. Overall trading sentiment was relatively muted, failing to generate effective transaction support. This situation was further exacerbated by the Middle East geopolitical crisis during the month, which disrupted the global chemical supply chain; some enterprises’ production plans were disturbed, intensifying market sentiment.

Mid-month, weakening demand from downstream sectors gradually emerged, while profit-taking sellers became more willing to offload goods, dragging market sentiment lower. Market players increased high-price low-sale operations, leading to a larger negotiation space in actual transactions. However, terminal and downstream users maintained resistance towards high-priced goods, resulting in weak transaction activities. Trade merchants faced increasing pressure to sell, and their willingness to realize profits increased, causing the market price level to gradually decline. There were reports of price inversion, and market participants turned cautious and pessimistic.

At the end of the month, the factory price of the petrochemical plant was increased by 200 yuan/ton again, further intensifying the cautious market sentiment. Terminal demand remained weak, and traders mainly operated in line with the market, with transactions continuing to be negotiated without significant volume increase. It is worth noting that some imported materials this month saw a significant price increase due to the factory price adjustment, showing a certain contrast with the sluggish domestic market.

III. Market Forecast for Next Month

The domestic POM market is expected to show a narrow adjustment trend in May. At the beginning of the month, the May Day holiday is approaching, and traders are gradually withdrawing from the market during the holiday, while end-user factories are mostly shut down for vacation, resulting in very few actual transactions and low market activity. After the holiday, Yankuang POM's two sets of facilities have maintenance plans, and manufacturers are strong in their desire to support the market, which may lead to a slight increase in supply. However, the follow-up of end-user demand still needs to be observed. The recovery of downstream factories after the holiday is relatively slow, and users are relatively cautious in their purchase intentions, with procurement mainly focusing on small-scale follow-ups. The pressure for traders to sell remains, and there may be a slight price reduction in negotiations.

At the macro level, the impact of Middle East geopolitical developments on domestic POM market sentiment has diminished marginally, yet it remains significant for imported material. Coupled with the sharp year-on-year decline in China's POM imports since 2026, the tight supply of imported POM spot goods is expected to persist, supporting further upward price expectations. This aligns with the industry trend of China’s POM sector transitioning from “import substitution” to “export expansion.” Overall, the POM market in May is expected to remain in a narrow range of fluctuation, with close attention needed on post-holiday plant maintenance implementation and the pace of downstream demand recovery.