Inventory Reduction Falls Short of Expectations, Polypropylene (PP) Enters Downward Channel

In recent years, the price pattern of polypropylene market has been quietly changing, with regional price differences gradually narrowing and seasonal patterns losing effectiveness. Additionally, the dual pressure from costs and sales has made it difficult for polypropylene inventory to achieve ideal reduction levels. On the other hand, although inventory is at a moderately high level, it has not triggered a dramatic drop. The reason for this is that domestic companies with temporary shutdowns provide some support.10The total domestic maintenance loss for the month reached74.49Ten thousand tons, with a year-on-year increase.30.3%On one hand, the maintenance in this part has somewhat offset the pressure from the new capacity being put into operation; on the other hand, the reason is that export channels are still available.1-9The total export volume of polypropylene in the month.234.08Ten thousand tons, an increase compared to last year.51.56Metric tons, increase rate at28.25%This series of indications shows that the market is reluctant to make a significant drop, and there is a lack of a "final blow" for a deep decline.

1. The Correlation Between Polypropylene Inventory Cycle and Price.

Data source: Jinlianchuan

In 2025, China's polypropylene granule inventory cycle and prices exhibit a negative correlation, with rising inventories putting pressure on prices, while inventory reduction provides some support to prices. Specifically, the highest total inventory accumulation within the year occurs after the Spring Festival, followed by fluctuating reductions, after which the inventory increase phase appears.5The beginning of the month and10At the beginning of the month,5At the beginning of the month, inventory accumulation is significant. Midstream and upstream enterprises adopt price reduction strategies to ensure smooth inventory clearance.10At the beginning of the month, after returning from the National Day holiday, polypropylene inventory gradually increased from the low level before the holiday. In addition, the traditional peak season“Golden September and Silver October”Demand has not met ideal expectations, downstream users are cautious in purchasing, and companies lack the willingness to restock. Currently, the polypropylene inventory cycle has not yet bottomed out, and price rebounds lack certain support. Whether prices can rise from low levels in the future depends crucially on whether inventories can continue to deplete and whether there is improvement on the demand side.

II. Analysis of Changes in Polypropylene Petrochemical Inventory

Data Source: JLC Network Technology

2025The annual changes in polypropylene petrochemical inventory data show that the highest point usually appears during the period after the Chinese New Year holiday, followed by a gradual destocking. Additionally, the second most significant accumulation point within the year is...10In early October, after experiencing the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, the petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly, followed by active price reductions by the two major oil companies to deplete inventory; the annual inventory low point is at9At the end of the month, businesses actively accelerated their shipping pace to reduce inventory pressure during the holiday period. Additionally, the continuous decline in spot prices before the festival stimulated some speculative demand, prompting faster inventory turnover.

3. Regarding the Future Market

Currently, the coexistence of "high inventory" and "not falling deeply" is mainly due to temporary marginal maintenance and export factors providing a buffer. From the inventory data perspective, the probability of a deep decline in polypropylene in the short term is not high. However, as the effects of the off-season demand become apparent, downstream companies are slow to follow up on new orders, which suppresses the procurement of raw materials. Therefore, it is expected that the polypropylene market price will narrow slightly in the later period, making high-price transactions difficult.