High-End Game Reveals, Downstream Procurement Caution Remains Unchanged

I. Key Market Focus Points This Week

This week, the ex-factory prices of domestically produced POM have continued to rise, with a growing sense of markettranslated as "wait-and-see sentiment" becoming more pronounced. The intention of downstream and terminal enterprises to replenish stocks remains lukewarm, and their purchasing enthusiasm has consistently been low. The psychological game between supply and demand has become the core characteristic of the market.

II. This Week's Market Analysis

In terms of price, the average price of POM in the East China region this week is 13,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,700 yuan/ton from last week; the average price in the South China region this week is 12,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton from last week. Both major markets have seen significant increases, with the overall price level moving upward notably.

III. Market Influencing Factor Analysis

Price performance: The POM market remained in a high-range fluctuation this week, with the mainstream grades rising by 1,700 yuan/ton compared to last week, showing a significant price increase and a generally strong market.

Capacity Utilization: This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's POM industry remained stable at 86.3%, unchanged from last week, with steady operating rates and no significant fluctuations observed.

Profitability: This week, the average domestic POM gross profit margin stood at RMB 1,960 per ton, up RMB 1,000 per ton from last week, reflecting a significant improvement in industry profitability and enhanced corporate earnings.

IV. Market Forecast for Next Week

It is expected that the POM market will show a range-bound trend next week, with a focus on four key factors:

Supply side: Hebi Longyu may start supplying, which could supplement part of the market supply, but the overall inventory pressure on the supply side is not significant, and it can still provide some support to prices.

Demand side: Downstream and end-user enterprises may have opportunities to replenish stocks at lower prices, but overall procurement will remain focused on immediate, essential needs, making large-scale, centralized purchasing unlikely; thus, demand-side support remains limited.

Cost side: Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate within a limited range; affected by the narrow-range oscillation of POM prices, industry profit margins may slightly decline.

Macroeconomic aspect: The ongoing impact of geopolitical conflicts continues to support market sentiment, which will to some extent alleviate downward price pressures and maintain a range-bound market pattern.