EVA Monthly Review: Supply and Demand Tension Emerges, Market Strong Then Weak in April

I. Hot Topics of the Month

a) Geopolitical conflicts this month have gradually eased, but EVA costs remain high, providing some support to the market.

b) The EVA downstream terminal orders remain sluggish, with weak market transactions, making it difficult to achieve effective volume growth.

c) EVA supply side device shutdowns are increasing, leading to a significant reduction in the total industry supply.

II. Market Review for This Month

The domestic EVA market in April showed a trend of initially strong then weak performance. During the month, multiple EVA production units were shut down for maintenance, leading to a significant decline in monthly output; at the same time, downstream factories saw reduced orders, resulting in overall weak demand and difficulty in increasing market transactions. In terms of prices, the average price of hard EVA increased by 1.20%, soft EVA by 1.46%, and EVA for photovoltaic applications by as much as 7.16%. In the latter part of the month, some photovoltaic grades experienced a situation where prices were high but transactions were difficult. Notably, some companies delayed the shutdown schedule of their EVA units to increase production, which somewhat alleviated short-term supply pressure, but failed to change the overall trend of reduced supply.

III. Market Impact Factor Analysis

1) In terms of output, domestic EVA production in April was 243,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12.30%, primarily due to an increase in plant maintenance activities.

2) On the supply side, domestic EVA plant shutdowns for maintenance have become more frequent, leading to a decline in overall industry operating rates and directly resulting in reduced market supply.

In terms of demand, the performance of downstream terminal orders has been weak, with slow digestion of spot goods, failing to effectively boost the market. Although the long-term demand for the photovoltaic industry is positive, the short-term demand for EVA photovoltaic-grade raw materials has not yet been effectively released.

IV. Next Month Market Forecast

The domestic EVA market in China is expected to exhibit a trend of weakening initially followed by stabilization in May. From the supply side, maintenance-related production losses at domestic EVA plants remain at a relatively high level, and there remains a possibility of unplanned load reductions or unexpected shutdowns at some enterprises—a pattern consistent with the scheduled maintenance trends observed across other chemical products during the same period. On the demand side, downstream photovoltaic (PV) demand is unlikely to improve significantly in the near term, and demand for PV-grade EVA raw materials is expected to remain subdued. Demand from the foaming sector is also anticipated to be weak. Overall, the market will be characterized by supply-demand competition, with the supply-demand balance likely to remain in a stalemate and consolidation phase. Based on a comprehensive assessment, the domestic EVA price index in China is projected to stand at RMB 11,500 per ton in May, representing a month-on-month decline of 4.16%.