[EVA Daily Review] Centralized Equipment Maintenance, Market Flat with Light Trading

1. Today's Summary

At the beginning of the week, the domestic EVA market remained stable overall, with no adjustments to the mainstream petrochemical factory ex-factory listings and auction prices. Several key production facilities in the country are undergoing scheduled maintenance, leading to a contraction in marginal supply in the industry. However, the overall inquiry atmosphere from downstream terminals is relatively weak, with market purchases mainly consisting of small orders based on just-in-time needs. Many intermediaries engage in offline negotiations for actual transactions, resulting in an overall flat trading situation in the market. The support from the raw material side is limited, and under the dual pressure of supply and demand, there are no significant fluctuations in the market.

2. Spot Overview

In terms of spot prices, the quotations for all popular grades in major trading markets across the country remained stable, with no fluctuations. The mainstream general grades, Gulei USI-629 and Hongjing 6020M in Xiamen and Jiangsu, are stable at 9,300 yuan/ton; Yangba 5110J remains at 9,800 yuan/ton; and the mainstream range for photovoltaic special materials in Fujian is between 9,400 and 9,500 yuan/ton. The overall market price system is stable, with no changes in regional price differences.

In terms of market trading, upstream petrochemical companies have a strong willingness to maintain price stability, firmly holding the lower limit of factory quotes. Downstream industries exhibit low purchasing sentiment, with no concentrated stockpiling actions; factories producing solar cells, foams, and other downstream products are only making sporadic purchases as needed. There is a lack of proactive trading logic in the market, making it difficult for high-priced goods to circulate, and actual transactions are mainly based on negotiations between buyers and sellers. The current mainstream negotiation range in the market is: soft materials 9000-9800 yuan/ton, hard materials 9000-9800 yuan/ton.

3. Production Dynamics

The domestic EVA industry shows significant differentiation in operational status, with multiple key plants undergoing scheduled maintenance. Ningxia Baofeng, Sinopec Quanzhou, and Yangzi Petrochemical are conducting comprehensive overhauls; all three production lines of Jiangsu Hongjing are completely shut down; Yanshan Petrochemical has three units that are long-term offline; other production facilities are maintaining stable operations, with some companies directing production towards specialized grades. The current capacity utilization rate of the industry is 73.99%, and overall operations are at a high level.

In terms of cost and profit, the mainstream transaction price for soft materials in the South China region is between 9,000 and 9,900 yuan/ton. The processing profit in the domestic EVA industry is minimal, with an average gross profit of only 150 yuan/ton. The upstream cost constraints limit manufacturers' pricing flexibility, and petrochemical companies are focused on maintaining stable prices in their operational strategy.

4. Market Forecast

The short-term domestic EVA market maintains a steady and fluctuating pattern, with unilateral rising or falling trends difficult to materialize. Positive support comes from multiple units undergoing concentrated maintenance, leading to a reduction in industry supply and firm petrochemical ex-factory prices. The core negative factors include weak support from raw material costs, divergent downstream demand, and overall lack of follow-through. With bullish and bearish factors balancing each other, the focus moving forward will be on tracking petrochemical unit maintenance progress and production line conversion dynamics.

The above analysis is based on publicly available market data and is for reference only; it does not constitute investment advice.