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Energy Expert McNally: Market Severely Underestimates Iran’s Long-Term Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz

wallstreetcn 2026-03-02 22:41:09

The President of Rapidan Energy warned that, unlike historical conflicts, Iran possesses advanced weapons and a deep coastline, enabling it to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz for a prolonged period. He believes that Iran's current strategic intent is to pressure Trump by driving up oil prices. If the strait does not return to normal this week, the market may face an unprecedented extreme shock.

The founder and president of energy consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group, Robert McNally, warned thatThe market is severely underestimating Iran's capability and willingness to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, and if this channel is blocked for a long time, the oil and gas market will face an unbearable impact.

McNally said on Bloomberg TV that Iran has the means and capability to make the Strait of Hormuz unsafe for a considerable period, likely one that could last longer than the market expects. He pointed out that if the U.S. Central Command fails to assure the public by the end of this week that the Strait of Hormuz remains open and shipping traffic resumes, "the market will enter a situation that it has not seriously considered or even believed could happen."

McNally stated bluntly that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, “the math for oil and gas markets will look very ugly.”He believes that Iran's current strategic intent is to drive up oil prices and place energy cost pressures at the center of Trump's policy agenda, forcing him to eventually back down.

Historical precedents do not apply; Iran possesses the capacity for sustained confrontation.

McNally rejected the market's optimistic expectations based on historical experience. He pointed out that the market habitually looks back to the First Gulf War, the Second Gulf War, and even the 1988 U.S.-Iran naval conflict—when the U.S. military sank about half of Iran's fleet in a single afternoon. However, he stressed, "This time is fundamentally different from those events."

Compared to the past,Iran currently has more advanced weapons and equipment, as well as a coastline with greater depth that is more favorable for sustained operations, which gives it the actual capability to conduct long-term interference in the Strait of Hormuz.McNally believes that the market’s habitual expectation of the U.S. military swiftly resolving issues represents a fundamental misjudgment under the current situation.

Regime survival pressure drives "unconventional" decisions

InRegarding the mainstream view that Iran would not easily block the Strait of Hormuz, McNally offered a different perspective. While Iran typically has reservations about blocking the strait, McNally emphasized,“This is not a normal period.”

He pointed out that the Iranian regime is currently facing a matter of life and death, and is resorting to a series of unconventional measures—escalating the conflict into a regional war, driving Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries into opposition, attacking hotels and multiple targets, and even European countries appear poised to be drawn in.Iran is resorting to desperate measures.

McNally pointed out that, militarily, Iran does not have the capability to escalate and maintain dominance.The only real leverage Iran can rely on is its influence on oil prices--by keeping oil prices high for a long time, pressuring Trump to withdraw.

McNally believes that Iran's current strategic blueprint is precisely the experience of the Houthis in April last year. He said that Trump saw Venezuela as the ideal model for pressure, while Iran has looked to the Houthis - who, after 52 days of bombardment, enduring thousands of munitions, and costing over $1 billion in military operations, have not been forced to stop blockading the Bab el-Mandeb.

“We have invested far more effort against Iran than against the Houthis, yet Iran possesses significantly more advanced weapons and a far more advantageous coastline,” McNally said.Iran's calculation is to embed high oil prices into Trump's policy agenda, making it unbearable for him in a few weeks, ultimately leading to his concession."I believe this is Iran's strategy."

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Energy Expert McNally: Market Severely Underestimates Iran’s Long-Term Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz

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