According to BASF's statement on July 15, benefiting from better-than-expected operating performance in the first half of the year, BASF SE has raised its outlook for EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) for non-recurring items in 2026 from a previous range of €6.2 billion to €7 billion to a new range of €6.9 billion to €7.7 billion.

According to data from S&P Capital IQ, the current consensus among market analysts is that BASF’s EBITDA before non-recurring items will be €7.4 billion in 2026. BASF’s figure for this profit metric in 2025 was €6.6 billion.

This performance outlook update is based on BASF’s synchronized adjustments to its forecast parameters for the global macroeconomic environment in 2026.

BASF now expects the global GDP growth rate for this year to be 2.5%, down from the previous 2.7%; global industrial production growth is expected to be 2%, down from 2.3%; and global chemical production growth is also expected to be weak, at only 1.8%, down from the previous forecast of 2.4%.

The company now expects the average annual euro-to-dollar exchange rate to be USD 1.17 per EUR 1.00, compared with the previous forecast of USD 1.20 per EUR 1.00. The annual average Brent crude oil price is expected to be revised upward to USD 80 per barrel, down from the previous estimate of USD 65 per barrel.

BASF noted that the development of the global economy and regional chemical markets in the second half of 2026 remains highly uncertain.

BASF stated, "This largely depends on the outcome of the US-Iran negotiations, particularly regarding the navigation and usage rights of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for the transport of energy and petrochemical raw materials in the Middle East."

The organization stated that the prolonged closure of trade routes would significantly affect economic activity, while a rapid agreement on a stable framework between the two sides would likely provide additional momentum for economic growth.

Second-quarter profit increased significantly.

According to preliminary figures released by BASF in the same statement, the company’s net profit for the second quarter of this year is expected to be €4.1 billion, far exceeding analysts’ expectations of €2.5 billion.

The company said this was mainly due to the completion of the sale of BASF’s coatings business to the Carlyle Group, which generated a pre-tax disposal gain of €3.9 billion. Tax expenses related to the transaction are expected to amount to several hundred million euros.

BASF’s second-quarter sales are expected to be €17.2 billion, up 16% from the second quarter of 2025, mainly driven by higher selling prices and volumes.

BASF’s preliminary data also showed that second-quarter EBITDA before special items rose from 1.6 billion euros in the same period last year to 2.4 billion euros, surpassing analysts’ consensus forecast of 2.1 billion euros.

The company stated: “BASF Group EBITDA before special items increased significantly compared with the same period last year, mainly driven by improved profitability in all segments except Surface Technologies.”

Second-quarter operating profit excluding one-off items is expected to reach €1.5 billion, more than doubling from about €700 million in the same period last year and also exceeding analysts’ market expectations of €1.2 billion.

BASF plans to release its full annual report on July 29.