[ABS Weekly Review] Stage-By-Stage Short-Term Rebound Fails, Off-Season Weighs on Market as It Falls Again

1. Weekly Hot Topics of Concern

Spot prices moved lower across the week, and the mainstream average price in the domestic ABS market continued its downward trend.

The industry’s production is operating steadily, with overall output basically unchanged from the previous week.

Downstream restocking is weak during the off-season, petrochemical companies’ inventories continue to accumulate, and inventory pressure has increased further.

II. ABS Market Trends This Week

During the current period (May 28 to June 4, 2026), the overall domestic ABS market declined again, with mainstream grades falling by 400–600 yuan/ton over the week. At the beginning of the week, supported by a rebound in styrene and positive sentiment from production cuts at Shandong independent refineries, the market saw a short-term bullish mood. Intermediate traders moderately replenished inventories, local transactions increased, and prices briefly stopped falling and stabilized. However, the supportive factors lacked sustainability. As styrene, butadiene, and acrylonitrile—the three major monomers—resumed fluctuating downward, cost support weakened. Meanwhile, from May to July, end-use demand entered the traditional off-season, and downstream purchasing based on rigid demand continued to contract.

As month-end approaches, some petrochemical plants are facing high inventory levels and have introduced bulk discount policies to accelerate sales. Profit-taking shipments have directly dragged down the market, triggering an oversold downturn. Current ex-factory price declines have far exceeded the drop in raw material costs, and losses among ABS producers continue to widen. However, large integrated refining and chemical producers have maintained stable operating rates, keeping overall industry supply at a high level. The imbalance of oversupply remains pronounced, making price fluctuations with a downward bias the dominant trend.

3. This Week’s Raw Material Market Trends

3.1 Styrene

The market generally expects a low probability of a large-scale war between the U.S. and Iran. International crude oil prices are trending weakly, weighing on sentiment across the petrochemical chain, while pure benzene is also moving lower, and continued weakness in upstream costs is exerting downward pressure on styrene. On the supply side, some units are scheduled to restart later, raising expectations of an increase in domestic supply. On the demand side, profitability in some downstream segments remains acceptable, and rigid demand has recovered slightly, but export orders have declined, making it difficult for demand growth to offset the increase in supply. Overall, market sentiment is bearish, and Jiangsu spot styrene is expected to remain weak and range-bound next week, with prices likely to fluctuate between RMB 8,800 and 9,300 per ton.

3.2 Butadiene

From June to July, multiple facilities in East China and South China will enter maintenance periods, leading to a tightening of spot supply in the region. Coupled with the ongoing uncertainties regarding Middle East negotiations and a phase of supplementary imports from Southeast Asia, the supply side is forming a bottom support. However, in North China, there is an expected increase in supply, while downstream ABS and synthetic rubber products are experiencing low profitability and sluggish finished product sales, resulting in cautious raw material procurement and a gradual divergence in regional price differences. In the future, butadiene is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, closely monitoring the implementation of maintenance schedules and the actual purchasing rhythm from downstream.

3.3 Acrylonitrile

Short-term fundamental changes remain limited, and the downward trend in the market is gradually easing. Previous consecutive price cuts have intensified factory losses, giving rise to expectations of passive production cuts. Although some plants plan to resume operations, some producers are simultaneously controlling output to hedge risks. End-user demand remains persistently weak and is unlikely to improve, limiting upside potential. Overall, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with further downside gradually narrowing.

IV. Market Forecast

Next week, styrene, butadiene, and acrylonitrile are expected to continue their weak trend. The cost support for ABS production remains insufficient, and coupled with the market being in the traditional off-season for end-user demand, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is subdued, causing the spot market to remain generally weak.

Supply SideThe industry is operating steadily, and next week's production is expected to remain basically unchanged. Overall, there is an ample supply of goods, and the inventory pressure is unlikely to see substantial relief.

Demand sideThe off-season market continues, downstream product manufacturers are purchasing based on needs, the willingness to stock up in bulk is relatively weak, and there is insufficient buying support.

Cost sideThe three major monomers remain weak, and the raw material end cannot effectively support ABS.

Mental aspectThe mainstream market sentiment is bearish. After consecutive price declines, sporadic bargain-hunting restocking has emerged, but the industry’s oversupply situation is difficult to reverse.

Overall, ABS is unlikely to shake off its short-term weakness, and close attention should continue to be paid to changes in international crude oil prices, geopolitical developments, and domestic petrochemical producers’ maintenance schedules and price adjustments.