2025: 'Nio, Xpeng, Li Auto, Leapmotor' Escape the Execution Line

Recently, the concept of "kill line" has suddenly become popular.

In reality, it refers to individuals or families whose financial situation is extremely precarious—income barely covers fixed expenses with almost no savings. Once they encounter unexpected emergencies, they quickly fall into a vicious cycle of "never being able to recover," even rapidly descending from a decent life to homelessness.

More plainly speaking, the "cutoff line" is an invisible red line.

Regarding the opening of the article, dedicating some effort to present the aforementioned content is intended to better introduce today's protagonists – the only four first-generation new forces remaining in the Chinese car market: Leapmotor, Xpeng, Li Auto, and NIO.

For them, 2025 also felt like escaping a "cut-off line" in a game.

Although the four pioneering new forces have all celebrated their tenth birthdays, in the brutal Chinese car market, they have only just solved the problem of "survival." Without exaggeration or downplaying, behind the seemingly glamorous surface, the reality is still full of challenges and lurking crises.

Over the past 365 days, from the perspectives of the four leaders — Zhu Jiangming, He Xiaopeng, Li Xiang, and Li Bin — their feelings have varied. Some are filled with contentment, some are resolute in their goals, some have had a sudden realization, and some have corrected their mistakes. What they all share, however, is that none of them can afford to be complacent, as an even more brutal battle is slowly unfolding.

Moving forward, I would like to delve into the gains and losses of the four "pioneer" new energy vehicle startups in 2025, and how they will continue to fight for survival and escape the "kill zone" in 2026.

01Leapmotor has found the sales password.

Why talk about Leapmotor first? It's very simple, because it has claimed the title of "New Force Sales Champion of 2025." Frankly, this result has surprised many people.

But I, for one, was not at all surprised.

Regarding the source of confidence behind the total delivery volume approaching the 600,000 mark, it boils down to: user-centricity, building the cars that users truly need; pricing with sufficient sincerity, bringing universal benefits to consumers through action; brand positioning, staying true to its identity and avoiding unnecessary controversy; technological advancement, striving for full-stack self-development and firmly grasping key supply chains; marketing, maintaining a steady and reliable approach, rejecting "black-red" marketing and embracing positive growth; and channel expansion, developing both domestic and overseas markets, utilizing the most efficient methods for penetration and expansion.

In summary, I've found a path that suits me.

From Leapmotor's perspective, thoroughly understanding the "mainstream mass market" is what it most wants to do at this stage. Of course, in the past 365 days, policy support has also provided tremendous help to this new force.

Sometimes, building cars really does require a little bit of "luck."

And when we try to map out Leapmotor's lineup for sale in 2025, you'll find there isn't a single standout bestseller. However, within the price range of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan, there are a cluster of models selling several thousand units per month.

The outside world always mistakenly believes that the key to its booming sales is "cheapness," but in reality, the deeper logic is "balance." "Half-priced Li Auto" or "price butcher" are merely superficial observations.

In comparison, similar viewpoints have been proposed more than once: "All competitors should carefully study the rapid evolution of Leapmotor's product dimensions."

In the past, you could question its "lack of understanding of car manufacturing"; now, this "outsider's" learning ability and iteration speed far exceed many arrogant "insiders."

It is precisely because of the support from these small details that Zhu Jiangming, as the helmsman, has repeatedly stated in public occasions: "In 2026, we will aim for 1 million vehicles."

In his view, with the foundation laid by the nearly 600,000 units from existing models on sale, coupled with the assistance of new contenders like the A10, D19, and D99 expanding into lower or higher segments, and the continued expansion in overseas markets, achieving the aforementioned goal is not impossible.

Who would have thought that Leapmotor would be the first new energy vehicle startup to announce its ambition to reach one million vehicles?

Just a few short years ago, it was teetering below the "kill line." As it turns out, choosing a path that suits you and seizing fleeting opportunities are more important than anything else.

Indeed, in 2026, the difficulties for Leapmotor will still be glaringly apparent.

First, competition in the mainstream mass market is bound to become increasingly fierce, so the first challenge is how to defend existing territory. Second, in the market segment above 200,000 yuan, this new energy vehicle manufacturer has not yet proven itself, and the battle to move upmarket will be much harder than imagined. Third, its performance in the intelligent driving dimension is currently significantly behind the leading players, and catching up quickly is equally thorny. Finally, in addition to aiming for 1 million units, it also needs to further prove its business model in terms of net profit.

"We have just passed the break-even point for the company, and we have no time to breathe. This is because the window for new energy vehicles is only a few years away, and our share in China's overall automotive market is still very small. When considering the global automotive market, it's even smaller. Therefore, we must seize every minute and every second, and strive with all our might for the next decade."

In an internal letter, Zhu Jiangming sounded the alarm for everyone.

For Leapmotor, having already unlocked the secret to sales, the most important thing it should do, and the surest way to escape the "kill line" for good, is to remain humble, cultivate its internal strengths, and make money quietly.

02Xpeng, Betting Big on AI Narrative

XPeng delivered nearly 430,000 new vehicles in 2025.

Without boasting or downplaying, this is an impressive report card. Although there's some dissenting opinion that the MONA M03 alone accounts for 40% of it, making its value slightly less significant, it still comes down to the saying: "Black cat or white cat, as long as it catches mice, it's a good cat."

Today's new energy vehicle manufacturers still essentially rely on "strengths" to drive their development.

In the past 365 days, while the MONA M03 has maintained a steady output, the other contenders in XPeng's lineup have essentially fulfilled their respective roles. However, a regret does remain, and that is "stamina."

Both the G7 and the brand-new P7, two strategic models, have seen their sales curves climb to a peak and then decline to a certain extent. This situation warrants vigilance.

Certainly, looking ahead to 2025, reshaping its leading position in the dimension of intelligence undoubtedly occupies a crucial part of Xpeng's strategic blueprint. This has always been a key label firmly attached to Xpeng and is also its golden signboard for selling cars.

However, in the past two years, taking autonomous driving as an example, with oligarchs like Huawei entering the market to consolidate their position, coupled with the strong efforts of many leading suppliers, the first-mover advantage has been gradually eroded.

Facing the pain points, from gradually switching to self-developed Turing chips, to officially announcing the second-generation VLA, to Xpeng AeroHT's flying car entering mass production and landing, and then to the humanoid robot sparking widespread discussion online, it's clear that Xpeng is trying its best to prove: "The old era has ended, and a new war based on AI has begun."

They are the key to whether the entire company can reach a new level.

As for 2026, which is gradually unfolding, according to the information revealed by He Xiaopeng, the sales target is directly aimed at 550,000 to 600,000 vehicles. In terms of new product launches, the focus is basically entirely concentrated on the SUV segment.

Codenamed "G01" a large 6-seater SUV, codenamed "G02" a full-size flagship SUV, plus under the MONA series, codenamed "D02" a mid-size SUV and codenamed "D03" a compact SUV.

There's no doubt that Xpeng has a deep understanding of its own shortcomings. In 2025, it was one of the few brands that sold more sedans than SUVs. In the Chinese car market, where consumers clearly prefer the latter, this is indeed somewhat awkward.

Last week, Xpeng showcased an "all-out battle from the start of the year" by unveiling four "trump cards" at a new spring press conference. The amount of incremental growth the extended-range competition can provide by 2026 appears crucial and cannot be lost.

Meanwhile, how to enhance brand image, how to recover lost ground in the over 200,000 RMB niche market, how to truly maintain and operate relationships with existing car owners, how to regain leadership in intelligent experiences, how to drive the company forward with more precise product definitions, how to leverage the assistance and contribution of overseas markets, and how to thoroughly achieve profitability for the full year...

Each challenge awaits to be solved.

I've always believed that the worst times are actually the best times. Because you can calm down and reflect, filling in and improving many areas where there were shortcomings. For us, 2026 is a year with great opportunities.

During an exclusive interview following the Spring Festival launch event, He Xiaopeng made his stance clear. As a witness, it's abundantly clear that the ferocity of the competition is far beyond imagination, and Xpeng cannot afford to be complacent in the slightest.

To completely escape the "kill zone," you must do it in one fell swoop.

03Ideal, back to startup mode.

In 2025, if I had to choose one phrase to describe the ideal performance, my answer would be—below expectations.

The most direct evidence is that its delivery volume has just crossed the 400,000 mark. It has become the only brand among the four first-generation new forces to experience a year-on-year "negative growth." As the former "star child" of this group, Ideal has clearly experienced a slowdown.

What's the crux of the matter?

On the one hand, it is certainly due to the besieged range-extended vehicle segment, and the loss of the L series has had a significant impact on its sales; on the other hand, although the i series was delayed by a year, when entering the pure electric vehicle market, it still appears hesitant and indecisive, with the wavering approach after the i8's launch being a typical example.

Soon after, in response to the subsequent i6, Li Auto made significant adjustments, showing ample sincerity. However, due to its late debut, it was difficult for it to reverse the full-year downturn on its own. The recall of the 2024 MEGA's power battery then dealt it another heavy blow.

Anyway, it seems like the past 365 days have been a period of "Mercury retrograde" for this new electric car company. Looking deeper, it also reveals the entire team's panic and distortion when facing headwinds.

Once upon a time, the reason Li Auto could dominate the Chinese auto market was primarily by relying on two "sharp swords": strong products and high efficiency. However, perhaps resting on its laurels for too long, it lacked timely awareness of the rapid changes in terminal competition.

As the primary responsible person, Li Xiang reflected on this.

"The previous pace of a major platform iteration every four years can no longer keep up with today’s fierce battlefield where models are refreshed every six months. For every move we make, our competitors make two." This gap in iteration speed has directly left Li Auto caught in a pincer movement across both the pure electric and extended-range segments.

In particular, Xiaomi's strong entry, with its strategy of "two hot products in two years," caught Li Auto off guard. Li Xiang himself admitted that he had previously made a major misjudgment of Xiaomi's market influence.

To reverse the unfavorable situation, Li Auto has established an aggressive adjustment strategy.

For example, shortening the product iteration cycle to two years; for example, breaking away from the "matryoshka doll" design style and pursuing product differentiation; for example, no longer excessively focusing on "cost-effectiveness" in R&D investment, but instead pursuing ultimate product power and AI technology barriers; and for example, regarding the overseas strategy, deciding to shift from relying on "parallel exports" to official comprehensive leadership, accelerating the layout of the Middle East and European markets.

In short, use any means necessary to retake the lost ground.

According to Li Xiang, "We will return to a startup mode." And in recent times, we have witnessed many changes in Ideal's executive team, from which we can already sense a determination to fight the current battle.

For this new automotive player, the so-called organization and strategy can certainly take a back seat for now. At this moment, product and efficiency are what truly define the direct path to victory.

In 2026, Li Auto must redeem itself.

Sales have seen a significant positive growth, aiming for simultaneous growth in both volume and price. The L series has undergone a successful major upgrade, while the i series continues to solidify its foundation. Establishing its leadership in AI is crucial. Despite continued pressure from the external environment, especially the more aggressive moves from key competitors like Huawei and Xiaomi, which will be fiercer than in 2025.

Because only in this way can one completely escape the "kill zone."

04NIO, selling cars with a clear mind

Sales volume is always the clearest mirror reflecting the survival status of a new energy vehicle startup. Therefore, attempting to chart Nio's delivery volume for the entire year of 2025, a rising curve was drawn, overcoming numerous difficulties.

With a total sales exceeding 320,000 units, although the once-promised "doubling" target was not met, the result was not too bad, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 47%.

Over the past 365 days, the main theme for this emerging electric vehicle company has been more like "setting aside distractions and focusing on selling cars." The most valuable achievement has been the gradual realization of the synergistic effect of its three brands.

Regarding NIO, although not yet switched to the NT3 platform, the "5566" has managed to hold its ground remarkably through intelligent upgrades and the standard 100 kWh long-range battery. The rapid emergence of the new ES8, however, is a very pleasant surprise. With December sales exceeding 22,000 units, taking the crown in the over 400,000 RMB segment regardless of powertrain, it further confirms the arrival of the golden age of all-electric large three-row SUVs.

Despite the turmoil of a leadership change in the first quarter, Shen Fei, who took command at a critical moment, managed the difficult task of bringing ONVO back on track. As word-of-mouth for the L60 gradually built up, it became the company’s primary sales driver for 2025. Meanwhile, the L90 gave NIO its first taste of a major victory in the second half of the year, with monthly deliveries exceeding 10,000 units for three consecutive months following its launch.

For Firefly, it was more of a "catastrophic start," but ultimately a "divine reversal of fate." With nearly 40,000 deliveries in 2025, it successfully unlocked the demand in the premium all-electric small car market. In my opinion, having a helmsman like Jin Ge who is clearly self-aware is also a stroke of luck for the brand.

In any case, following a resolute period of "scraping the bone to treat the poison," NIO is becoming increasingly efficient and pragmatic. There was a time when this new energy vehicle pioneer constantly spoke of "long-termism"; today, however, it has become the most fiscally meticulous automaker in the industry, ensuring that every penny is spent where it matters most.

Perhaps, only by infinitely approaching the precipice can one achieve true enlightenment. The brutal baptism of 2025 has finally led NIO to find its suitable "survival methodology," even coming close to touching the threshold of quarterly profitability.

Facing the unknown year of 2026, Li Bin set the latest goals: "Maintain a steady growth of 40%-50% in sales, and strive to achieve full-year profitability financially."

Regarding the new car production schedule, which everyone is very interested in, the L80, the brand new ES7, and the ES9 are three pure electric SUVs, each one larger than the last, and they are essentially "openly announced".

Coupled with the L90 and the new ES8, NIO undoubtedly aims to fully capture the high-margin large-vehicle market through a "high, medium, and low combination punch" strategy.

Objectively speaking, it's not the only manufacturer eyeing this "cake." From Huawei to Xiaomi, including the aforementioned Li Auto, and many other unnamed manufacturers, they all want to grab a significant share.

Therefore, it is too early to declare victory. As William Li mentioned in his internal speech: "The more brutal the environment, the more we need to maintain our strategic focus, not to underestimate ourselves, nor to deceive ourselves. We must stay true to our original aspirations and focus on action."

And in terms of intelligent driving, energy replenishment, channels, globalization, and services... this new energy vehicle manufacturer also needs to make continuous, incremental progress.

After all, to completely escape the "execution line," there can't be any shortcomings in any of the aforementioned aspects. Nio doesn't have the luxury of relaxing for a moment. Next, it must continue to "build strongholds and fight stubbornly."