US Military Conducts Airstrikes on Iran for Two Consecutive Days; Iran: Fully Closes Strait of Hormuz! Oil Prices Rise Over 2%, Plastic Market Fluctuates Narrowly

1. Crude Oil Market Dynamics

6/10: U.S.-Iran relations remain unstable, heightening concerns over supply risks, and international oil prices rose. NYMEX WTI crude futures for the July contract settled at USD 90.03/bbl, up USD 1.83/bbl, or +2.07% day-on-day; ICE Brent crude futures for the August contract settled at USD 93.10/bbl, up USD 1.65/bbl, or +1.80% day-on-day. China’s INE crude futures 2607 contract fell RMB 14.3 to RMB 573.1/bbl, while rising RMB 11.1 to RMB 584.2/bbl in night trading.

Post-market Outlook

The recent situation in oil prices has been complex, with deep intertwinement between geopolitical struggles, macroeconomic expectations, and supply-demand factors. Different parties, based on varying perspectives, have found it difficult to reach a clear consensus on oil price recommendations. Bearish factors have slightly prevailed, which explains why, despite a significant decline in crude oil inventories during this period, oil prices have lacked sufficient upward momentum. However, with the US and Iran launching military strikes against Iran again, and Iran's retaliation underway, the balance of bullish and bearish forces in the crude oil market may see significant changes. Geopolitical premium will once again be injected into the market, coupled with the continued decline in inventories. Oil prices are highly likely to start a new upward trend, challenging the upper range of the high-price zone. This will be a period of high volatility, so it is important to grasp the timing carefully and participate cautiously.

II. Macroeconomic Market Dynamics

1、The U.S. military has confirmed a second consecutive day of strikes against Iran.The U.S. Secretary of Defense said the U.S. military will strike Iran hard and will bomb key facilities inside Iran; U.S. media reported that Trump ordered strikes on Iran’s power plants and bridges.

Trump: Will launch a fierce strike against Iran again. Iran has taken too long to negotiate, and now it must pay the price.The agreement has already been reached; at this stage, only the Iranian side’s signature on the document is needed, and they will be given a few more days to consider it.。

3、The U.S. media reported that two additional demands put forward by Trump caused the agreement to be delayed: first, that the diluted enriched uranium must begin to be processed within 60 days; and second, a commitment not to charge toll fees.

Israel is reportedly preparing to launch another strike against Iran.

The Qatari delegation has arrived in Iran, and it is reported that the US and Iran continue to negotiate through Qatari channels.

6、In May, the U.S. CPI rose by 0.5% month-on-month and increased by 4.2% year-on-year, hitting a three-year high. Trump commented: "I love inflation."

7. Bureau of Statistics:In May, the Consumer Price Index for residents rose by 1.2% year on year.。

III. Plastics Market Dynamics

International crude oil rose, while major plastic-related futures contracts fluctuated narrowly in the night session.

The Plastic 2609 contract was quoted at 7,923 yuan/ton, up 0.84% from the previous trading day.

The PP2609 contract was quoted at 8,700 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from the previous trading day.

The PVC2609 contract was quoted at 4,689 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous trading day.

The styrene 2607 contract is reported at 8493 tons, down 0.57% from the previous trading day.

IV. Today's Market Forecast

PE: In the short term, on the supply side, although some units have been temporarily shut down, multiple units are scheduled to restart soon, and overall supply is expected to remain stable. On the demand side, as downstream enterprises complete concentrated restocking, purchasing activity is expected to decline noticeably. Under the impact of weakening demand, market prices will come under pressure. Domestic polyethylene prices are expected to continue trending downward, with a decline of about RMB 50 per tonne.

PP: Overall cost support has weakened slightly, while maintenance remains at a high level, and the market continues to face tight spot supply. Constrained by weak processing margins, downstream operating rates are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range with little chance of a significant rebound. Buyers are mainly digesting their own inventories and making sporadic purchases as needed, while incremental new orders remain insufficient. The market is expected to consolidate at high levels in the short term. East China raffia-grade PP is expected at RMB 9,700-9,900/mt.

PVC: Domestic PVC supply and demand remain weak. After overseas producers cut prices, competition in export sales has intensified. In the future, planned maintenance by domestic producers, together with increasing expectations of cost-related maintenance, will to some extent reduce supply pressure in the market. Before costs strengthen and become firm, the PVC spot market is expected to maintain a weak, range-bound trend. In the short term, expectations are being bolstered by regional developments and policy-related factors.