Since the first term of the Trump administration (2018), the U.S. has implemented multiple rounds of tariff measures on Chinese goods, including a 25% tariff under Section 301. This countermeasure is a continuation of China's response to the tariff policies during Trump's second term, reflecting the long-term competition between the two sides in areas such as agriculture and energy.

The U.S. claims that the tariffs are in response to the issue of fentanyl inflows, but China has been the first globally to regulate all types of fentanyl substances since 2019 and has assisted in drug control through international cooperation. China points out that blaming it for the failure of domestic drug control is "shifting the blame," and the nature of the tariffs is political manipulation.

In terms of market impact: China's imposition of 10%-15% tariffs on U.S. soybeans, corn, and other products will lead to increased export costs for U.S. agricultural products, exacerbating domestic inventory buildup. In 2024, China accounted for 60% of U.S. soybean exports, and it is expected that U.S. farmers' income will decrease by 20%.

At the same time, China may increase imports of agricultural products from South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina on one hand, and promote the upgrading of domestic agricultural mechanization to reduce dependence on imported agricultural products on the other.

​In addition, China has previously imposed additional tariffs on U.S. crude oil and liquefied natural gas as countermeasures, which may lead to an increase in the proportion of energy imports from Russia and the Middle East, while accelerating the substitution of domestic new energy sources. The imposition of additional tariffs on large-displacement vehicles and their components will also accelerate the localization of production for German and Japanese brands in China, forcing an upgrade in the technology of domestic automotive parts.

In terms of the specific impact on the plastic industry: After the U.S. imposes additional tariffs on all Chinese goods (including plastic products), the export costs will rise by 10%-20%. Taking the toy industry as an example, China accounts for 70% of toy imports to the United States, and the叠加关税可能导致终端售价上涨36%-56%，迫使部分企业将产能转移至越南、印尼。

The U.S. has implemented anti-dumping measures on products such as polymeric MDI (with the tax rate increasing from 6.5% to 41.5%), which will have a short-term impact on exports but in the long term will push China to export through European production bases and strengthen market development in the Middle East and Africa.

In addition, plastic companies will accelerate the layout of "near-shore manufacturing" in Mexico and Southeast Asia, using regional trade agreements (such as RCEP) to reduce tariff costs. Tariff pressures will force companies to develop high-value-added products (such as medical-grade plastics) to replace import needs. (For reference, the self-sufficiency rate of polyethylene (PE) in China has increased from 65% in 2018 to 85% in 2025)

In the short term, the domestic supply of plastic raw materials (such as PE, PP) may become oversupplied due to export blockages, leading to increased downward pressure on prices; however, high-end engineering plastics (such as PA66) may see price increases due to import substitution demand. In the medium to long term, the global chemical supply chain is evolving towards "regionalization + multiple centers," with China's plastic industry expanding into the "Belt and Road" markets to offset losses in the U.S. market. It is expected that exports to Southeast Asia will grow by 12% by 2025.

In terms of the specific impact on the plastic industry: After the U.S. imposes additional tariffs on all Chinese goods (including plastic products), the export costs will rise by 10%-20%. Taking the toy industry as an example, China accounts for 70% of toy imports to the United States, and the叠加关税可能导致终端售价上涨36%-56%，迫使部分企业将产能转移至越南、印尼。

In terms of the specific impact on the plastic industry: After the U.S. imposes additional tariffs on all Chinese goods (including plastic products), the export costs will rise by 10%-20%. Taking the toy industry as an example, China accounts for 70% of toy imports to the United States, and the叠加关税可能导致终端售价上涨36%-56%，迫使部分企业将产能转移至越南、印尼。

In terms of the specific impact on the plastic industry: After the U.S. imposes additional tariffs on all Chinese goods (including plastic products), the export costs will rise by 10%-20%. Taking the toy industry as an example, China accounts for 70% of toy imports to the United States, and the叠加关税可能导致终端售价上涨36%-56%，迫使部分企业将产能转移至越南、印尼。

In terms of the specific impact on the plastic industry: After the U.S. imposes additional tariffs on all Chinese goods (including plastic products), the export costs will rise by 10%-20%. Taking the toy industry as an example, China accounts for 70% of toy imports to the United States, and the additional tariffs could lead to a 36%-56% increase in the final selling price, forcing some companies to shift their production capacity to Vietnam and Indonesia.