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Tsinghua University Team's New Method: Efficient and Accurate Prediction of PBAT Lifespan in Different Environments

Biodegradable and Recyclable Center 2025-03-21 09:26:04

The service life of polymer materials strongly depends on the environmental conditions under which they are used. Therefore, the rapid and accurate prediction of material service life under different environmental conditions is of great significance for the safe use of materials, stabilization modification, or reasonable recycling.

Recently, Professor Yang Rui's team from the Department of Chemical Engineering at Tsinghua University has established an efficient and accurate lifespan prediction method to quantitatively predict the lifespan of the biodegradable plastic PBAT in different climatic regions. This method utilizes the Comprehensive Aging Evaluation System (CAES) previously developed by the team (Figure 1), and establishes a lifespan prediction model through three steps:

(1) Through CAES, quickly test the CO2 generation rate of PBAT under different environmental conditions (irradiance, temperature, humidity) to obtain the quantitative relationship between degradation rate and environmental conditions, i.e., the environmental condition equation;

(2) Establish the correlation between CO2 production rate and tensile strength of PBAT with different aging degrees, i.e., the correspondence of aging states;

(3) Using the correspondence of aging states as a bridge, the environmental condition equations and the tensile strength-time relationship are combined to establish a life prediction model. This can predict the attenuation process of the tensile strength of PBAT over time under different environmental conditions (Figure 2), and quantitatively calculate the spatiotemporal distribution of the PBAT aging rate, drawing the expected life distribution map of China (Figure 3) and the monthly aging rate distribution map (Figure 4).

Figure 1 Structure Diagram of Comprehensive Aging Evaluation System

Figure 2 (a) PBAT lifespan prediction model fit effect test chart; (b) PBAT mechanical performance degradation prediction lines and actual measurement data under different aging conditions

Figure 3 PBAT Outdoor Aging Expected Lifespan Distribution Map

Figure 4 Distribution of the single-month aging rate of PBAT in six typical cities

This work reveals the quantitative relationship of how the outdoor lifespan of PBAT varies with seasons and regional environments, for example, under high temperature and high irradiation conditions in summer, the lifespan of PBAT is shorter, making stabilization modification more necessary; when using PBAT in winter, one needs to be aware of the risk of slow degradation, and corresponding adjustments should be made according to the usage environment to match the expected use and required outdoor lifespan of PBAT. The lifespan prediction method based on CAES greatly reduces the required time and cost, significantly improving the efficiency of material lifespan evaluation work, to meet the timely response needs of material structural design and application for lifespan prediction.

The work was published in the Journal of Cleaner Production (DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.145276) under the title "Efficient and precise outdoor lifetime prediction method for biodegradable poly (butylene adipate/terephthalate) under various climate conditions". The first author of the article is Ye Yan, a doctoral student from the Department of Chemical Engineering at Tsinghua University.

This research was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program (2021YFD1700700, 2021YFC2103603).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.145276

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Tsinghua University Team's New Method: Efficient and Accurate Prediction of PBAT Lifespan in Different Environments

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