The service life of polymer materials strongly depends on the environmental conditions under which they are used. Therefore, the rapid and accurate prediction of material service life under different environmental conditions is of great significance for the safe use of materials, stabilization modification, or reasonable recycling.

Recently, Professor Yang Rui's team from the Department of Chemical Engineering at Tsinghua University has established an efficient and accurate lifespan prediction method to quantitatively predict the lifespan of the biodegradable plastic PBAT in different climatic regions. This method utilizes the Comprehensive Aging Evaluation System (CAES) previously developed by the team (Figure 1), and establishes a lifespan prediction model through three steps:

(1) Through CAES, quickly test the CO2 generation rate of PBAT under different environmental conditions (irradiance, temperature, humidity) to obtain the quantitative relationship between degradation rate and environmental conditions, i.e., the environmental condition equation;

(2) Establish the correlation between CO2 production rate and tensile strength of PBAT with different aging degrees, i.e., the correspondence of aging states;

(3) Using the correspondence of aging states as a bridge, the environmental condition equations and the tensile strength-time relationship are combined to establish a life prediction model. This can predict the attenuation process of the tensile strength of PBAT over time under different environmental conditions (Figure 2), and quantitatively calculate the spatiotemporal distribution of the PBAT aging rate, drawing the expected life distribution map of China (Figure 3) and the monthly aging rate distribution map (Figure 4).

Figure 1 Structure Diagram of Comprehensive Aging Evaluation System

Figure 2 (a) PBAT lifespan prediction model fit effect test chart; (b) PBAT mechanical performance degradation prediction lines and actual measurement data under different aging conditions

Figure 3 PBAT Outdoor Aging Expected Lifespan Distribution Map

Figure 4 Distribution of the single-month aging rate of PBAT in six typical cities

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.145276