Trump to Implement Two-Step Tariff Plan! International Crude Oil Rises for Six Consecutive Sessions, Plastic Market Tentatively Raises Prices

I. Overnight Futures Market Dynamics

Although Trump's secondary tariffs on Venezuela boosted oil prices, the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea and on energy facilities limited the涨幅 of oil prices. （注：原文中的“涨幅”在英文中没有直接对应的词语放在句尾，因此在翻译时进行了适当的调整以保持句子通顺。正确的翻译应为：“Although Trump's secondary tariffs on Venezuela boosted oil prices, the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea and on energy facilities limited the rise in oil prices.”）WTI Crude OilFinally closed up 0.05% at $69.14 per barrel.Brent crude oilIncreased by 0.15%, reported at $73.12 per barrel.

II. Macroeconomic Market Dynamics

Trump is reportedly planning a two-step tariff plan.U.S. President Trump is considering a two-step strategy for his new tariff system, which involves imposing emergency tariffs using rarely utilized powers before completing investigations into trade partners. Sources familiar with the discussions say that the proposals being discussed by government officials aim to establish a more solid legal framework for reciprocal tariffs while allowing Trump to raise funds for his planned tax cuts. Among the proposals that Trump's team has been discussing is a plan to initiate a so-called "Section 301" investigation against trade partners while using the rarely invoked emergency powers to immediately impose tariffs during the transition period.

Trump: Russia and Ukraine will reach an agreement on a maritime ceasefire.Former President Trump stated that significant progress has been made on the Ukraine issue as of March 25, local time. He mentioned that the United States is engaged in in-depth discussions with both Russia and Ukraine, and the progress is smooth. Trump indicated that Russia and Ukraine will reach an agreement on a maritime ceasefire, with other countries involved in monitoring the ceasefire process. He also stated that he would consider Russia's request for sanctions relief.

◎Recently, Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing conducted research on relevant platform enterprises to promote the healthy development of the platform economy and market regulation. He emphasized the need to accelerate the improvement of relevant laws and regulations regarding platform rules, algorithms, fees, and live e-commerce, resolutely address issues such as low-quality and low-price "involution" competition, and severely crack down on behaviors such as counterfeiting, false advertising, fictitious discounts, false comparisons, and traffic speculation.

The National Health Commission is carrying out a research initiative for high-quality population development by 2025, focusing primarily on: promoting high-quality population development, improving the fertility support policy system, and creating a friendly social environment for childbirth.

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The UK and India are considering lowering taxes on American goods before April 2nd to avoid being hit by U.S. tariffs. India plans to reduce tariffs on $23 billion worth of U.S. goods and eliminate the controversial 6% digital tax. The UK is contemplating adjustments to its digital services tax imposed on American tech companies.

In March, the Consumer Confidence Index of the American Chamber of Commerce for World Large Enterprises recorded 92.9, the lowest since January 2021, with an expected value of 94 and a previous value of 98.3. The expected index plummeted to 65.2, hitting a twelve-year low.

The US FHFA house price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in January, the smallest increase since June 2024, with expectations of a 0.3% rise and a previous value revised from a 0.4% increase to a 0.5% increase.

◎The S&P/CS 20-City Composite unadjusted house price index for the US in January rose 4.7% year over year, in line with expectations of a 4.7% increase, compared to 4.48% in the previous month.

U.S. February new home sales totaled 676,000 units annually, expecting 679,000 units, with the previous figure revised from 657,000 to 664,000 units.

◎The Richmond Fed manufacturing index for March in the US was -4, with expectations at 1 and a previous value of 6.

The UK's CBI retail sales balance for March is -41, the lowest since July of last year, with an expectation of -24 and a previous value of -23.

3. Plastic Market Morning Update

Oil prices closed slightly higher overnight, marking six consecutive gains, while domestic plastic futures contracts traded narrowly in the night session.

Plastic 2505 contract reported at 7,713 yuan per ton, up 0.01% from the previous trading day.

PP2505 contract reported at 7327 yuan per ton, up 0.01% from the previous trading day.

PVC2505 contract was reported at 5,130 yuan per ton, down 0.12% from the previous trading day.

The 2025 contract for styrene was reported at 7,725 yuan per ton, down 1.38% from the previous trading day.

IV. Future Forecast

PP：Although OPEC+ will gradually increase production slightly starting in April, some oil-producing countries have indicated that compensatory production cuts will still be implemented. Coupled with the ongoing instability in geopolitical situations, international oil prices may trend upward. On the supply side, there are more planned maintenance shutdowns for PP facilities, and there are currently no announcements regarding new production starts, which is expected to lead to a decrease in available supply. On the demand side, the increase in downstream operating rates and the consumption of inventory for raw material PP may drive a slight rise in demand, providing some support for the PP market. However, the adverse effects of additional tariffs imposed overseas may offset some of this growth. Overall, it is expected that the polypropylene market may undergo upward consolidation in the short term.

PE：On the supply side, it is expected that the material supply will remain stable with a growing trend. The number of PE facilities currently planning maintenance is relatively low, coupled with ample physical goods in the market. Although some facilities are undergoing product conversion, there is no significant overall change. On the demand side, it is expected that downstream operating levels will continue to improve. There is room for demand release in sectors such as agricultural films, packaging, and construction. However, factors such as additional tariffs imposed by overseas markets may limit the growth rate to some extent. Overall, in the short term, it is anticipated that the polyethylene market will likely range-bound.

PVC：Spot market quotations from merchants in various regions have seen minor declines in some areas and minor increases in others, leading to a somewhat chaotic situation. However, most actual transactions allow for negotiation. After the futures prices increased, the basis报价 offers did not have a price advantage, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers and traders was not high, resulting in sluggish spot market transactions. The spot market remains weak, with downstream buyers still preferring to replenish their stock through low-priced price fixing after the futures prices decline, showing poor response when prices rise. Currently, the supply and demand situation does not provide sufficient direction for prices, and there is no clear long-term guidance from domestic economic policies or news. Although both the futures and spot markets saw a significant increase yesterday, today's sustained momentum appears somewhat insufficient. In the short term, continue to observe the stability of PVC spot market prices.