[Specialized Plastics Index] Fundamentals Under Pressure, Polyolefin Spot Prices Continue to Weaken

The South China PP price index is 6791.06 points, a decrease of 58.55 points compared to last week, with a decline of 0.85%. Among them, raffia fell by 70, fiber by 20, copolymer by 30, thin-wall by 50, and homopolymer by 50.

The South China PE price index is at 7707 points, down 26.91 points from last week, a decrease of 0.35%. Among them, linear fell by 50, low pressure fell by 40, and high pressure fell by 30.

There are no favorable news indicators in the market, and under pressure from the fundamentals, the spot price continues to weaken.

On the macroeconomic front, the National Bureau of Statistics released the third-quarter GDP data this week, which was slightly better than expected. However, real estate data showed a month-on-month decline and an expanded year-on-year decrease, suggesting negative sentiment guidance. At the same time, institutions believe there is still room for policy rate cuts before the end of the year. Internationally, after Trump released signals of easing last Friday, the market remained relatively calm with no major events occurring, but underlying tensions persist. The United States may exert influence on Russia-Ukraine and Venezuela issues before November 1, which could increase geopolitical risks for crude oil.

In terms of fundamentals, the pressure on the supply side has not eased in the short term. Some previously overhauled units are gradually resuming operations, and with the continuous release of new production capacity, market supply remains abundant. The operating rate of downstream industries is showing an upward trend, especially as agricultural film production enters its seasonal peak, creating a certain level of rigid demand support in the market.

Looking ahead, the macroeconomic and fundamental aspects are continuously improving, but supply and demand pressures still exist. The focus will be on whether oil prices can stabilize and whether downstream purchasing on the demand side can increase. It is expected that the South China PP price index will be 6700-6900, and the PE price index will be 7600-7800 next week.