[Special Plastics Index] Supply and Demand Pressure Shows Little Improvement, Polyolefins Continue to Weaken

The South China PP price index is 7180.83 points, down 105.85 points from last week, a decrease of 1.45%. Among them, raffia fell by 120, fiber fell by 100, copolymer fell by 130, thin-wall fell by 110, and homopolymer fell by 80.

The South China PE price index is at 7,877.53 points, up 20.27 points or 0.26% compared to last week. Among them, linear dropped by 30, low-density dropped by 20, and high-density dropped by 20.

The overall price index of polyolefin spot markets has weakened, with the price spread between PP and PE further widening. Currently, there are no macro-level positive catalysts in the market, and trading is generally returning to fundamental factors.

From a macro perspective, favorable expectations both domestically and internationally still exist, but there is no substantial short-term positive development to provide support. Domestically, there has been no new progress in the plan to eliminate outdated petrochemical facilities, while internationally, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts have yet to materialize.

From a fundamental perspective, the weak trend is temporarily difficult to change. On the supply side, the peak maintenance period has passed, but there is new production pressure, and output remains at a high level. On the demand side, although downstream operating rates are showing signs of recovery and purchasing demand has improved, there is still a significant gap compared to the peak season. Downstream factories maintain just-in-time purchasing mainly to digest finished product inventory. Therefore, despite the arrival of the "Golden September," downstream expectations for a strong peak season are low, and overall supply and demand pressure remains high.

Looking ahead, there are improvements in the macroeconomic and fundamental aspects, but the substantive effects remain to be seen. Continue to focus on anti-involution dynamics, as well as changes in the crude oil and coal sectors. The South China PP price index is expected to be 7100-7300 and the PE price index 7800-8000 next week.