1、Today's Summary

①、Crude Oil: 3/4: The U.S. tariff increase policy has sparked potential trade dispute risks, coupled with OPEC+ planning a small production increase from April, leading to a decline in international oil prices.

②、Today, the HDPE market price saw minor adjustments, ranging from 2-7 yuan/ton; LDPE market prices slightly decreased by 9 yuan/ton; LLDPE market prices slightly decreased by 6 yuan/ton.

2、Spot Overview

Using Shandong and Hebei regions as a benchmark, today's high-pressure white transparent first-grade granules in Hebei were priced at 6,400 yuan/ton, Juxian EVA granules at 6,100 yuan/ton, and Wahaha white granules in Hebei at 5,500 yuan/ton. The quotations were stable, in line with early expectations. Although it is the traditional peak demand season of "Golden March," downstream orders are not robust, and inquiry sentiment is low, which constrains the rise in granule prices.

3、Production Dynamics

Last week, the capacity utilization rate of the recycled PE market continued to rise, with the overall operating rate maintained at 22%. As the "Golden March" peak season approaches, under the influence of a new-old material price difference of over 1,400 yuan/ton, large enterprises mostly maintain high levels of operation; small and medium-sized enterprises mostly maintain low levels of operation. Affected by both product quality and terminal demand, the demand for mainstream granules continues to decline. Coupled with the fluctuating downward trend of new materials, this has intensified the cautious purchasing sentiment of end-users towards raw materials. Therefore, although the operating rate in the market has increased, the frequency of increases is not high.

4、Price Forecast

The prices of recycled PE are expected to remain stable, with real transactions continuing through negotiations. Entering the traditional consumption peak season in March, the operating rates of upstream and downstream manufacturers in the industry chain are gradually increasing. As the weather warms up, the efficiency of raw material recovery improves, but compared to demand, the overall supply remains tight, and the cost base is high, providing solid support for the bottom of the recycled granule market. The upward expectation for new materials is limited, offering only moderate support to the recycled plastic market. Therefore, despite the boost from the peak season, prices are unlikely to see significant adjustments, and the short-term market will mainly focus on maintaining stable prices.

5、Related Product Situation

PE Market: Today, domestic polyethylene spot market prices showed mixed trends. HDPE market prices mainly saw minor adjustments, ranging from 2-7 yuan/ton; LDPE market prices slightly decreased by 9 yuan/ton; LLDPE market prices slightly decreased by 6 yuan/ton. Currently, the cost support in the market has somewhat loosened, and the overall macro environment is bearish, with no significant positive factors. Although there are no new pressures in the short term, the supply of spot goods is relatively abundant, and the market as a whole is taking a cautious and watchful stance. Traders are mostly following the market, with prices making minor adjustments.