1、Today's Summary

①、Crude Oil: 3/3: The market is concerned that additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. will drag down the global economy and demand, and it is uncertain whether OPEC+ will postpone its production increase plan, leading to a decline in international oil prices.

②、Today, HDPE market prices have risen, with an increase of 1-13 yuan/ton; LDPE market prices have slightly decreased, with a drop of 1 yuan/ton; LLDPE market prices have also slightly decreased, with a drop of 5 yuan/ton.

2、Spot Overview

Table 1 Summary of Domestic Recycled PE Prices (Unit: yuan/ton)

Using Shandong and Hebei as benchmarks, today's high-pressure white transparent first-grade granules in Hebei were collected at 6400 yuan/ton, Juxian EVA granules at 6100 yuan/ton, and Wahaha white granules in Hebei at 5500 yuan/ton, with stable quotations, meeting early expectations. Although we have entered the traditional peak demand season known as "Golden March," downstream orders are not robust, and inquiry sentiment is low, which restricts the rise in granule prices.

3、Production Dynamics

Last week, the capacity utilization rate of the recycled PE market continued to rise, with the overall operating rate maintained at 22%. As the "Golden March" peak season approaches, under the influence of a new-old material price difference of over 1400 yuan/ton, large enterprises mostly maintain high levels of operation; small and medium-sized enterprises mostly maintain low levels of operation. Affected by product quality and terminal demand, the demand for mainstream granules from the end-users has been continuously declining, coupled with the fluctuating downward trend of new materials, which intensifies the cautious purchasing sentiment of raw materials among end-users. Therefore, although the operating rate in the market has increased, the frequency of this increase is not high.

4、Price Forecast

The market price of recycled PE continues to stabilize, with real transactions still being negotiated. Entering the traditional consumption peak season in March, the operating rates of upstream and downstream manufacturers in the industry chain are gradually increasing. As the weather warms up, the efficiency of raw material recovery improves, but compared to demand, the overall supply remains tight, and the cost base is high, providing solid support at the bottom for recycled granules. The upward expectation for new materials is limited, offering only moderate support to the recycled plastic market. Thus, although there is a boost from the peak season atmosphere, prices are unlikely to see significant adjustments, and the short-term market will still focus on maintaining stable prices.