[pvc weekly preview] domestic pvc market prices expected to remain weak and stable today

1. Key Points

1 [Longzhong] 9/5: The market continues to focus on the OPEC+ meeting this Sunday, fearing the introduction of a new production increase plan, leading to a drop in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for October contracts fell by $1.61 to $61.87 per barrel, a decrease of 2.54% compared to the previous period. ICE Brent crude futures for November contracts fell by $1.49 to $65.50 per barrel, a decrease of 2.22% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2510 contract fell by 1.3 to 482.3 yuan per barrel, and dropped by 10.4 to 471.9 yuan per barrel in the night session.

2 、 Over the weekend, the domestic calcium carbide market saw an increase, with mainstream trade prices in the Wuhai area quoted at 2,350 yuan/ton, and production enterprises shipping smoothly. As some supporting calcium carbide facilities in the Inner Mongolia region undergo maintenance, supply has decreased, and increased procurement has accelerated the consumption of market inventory. With downstream maintenance ending, demand has noticeably recovered regionally, leading to a rapid decrease in commodity calcium carbide volumes and tightening market supply. Over the weekend, the mainstream trade price in Wuhai increased to 2,400 yuan/ton.

3 PVC: Last week, the domestic PVC spot market prices mainly maintained a weak oscillation range, with weakened transactions. Spot supply slightly increased during the week, and although the peak demand season has arrived, exports remain sluggish. Industry inventory continues to accumulate, and in the short term, there are no macro expectations combined with the weakening of the black industry, causing the market center to decline. As of September 5th, the carbide-based PVC in East China remained at 4640-4780 yuan/ton, and the ethylene-based PVC at 4800-5000 yuan/ton.

2. Price List

3. Market Outlook

PVC From the perspective of fundamentals, as company maintenance gradually concludes during the week, production is expected to increase, leading to an overall rise in supply expectations. The domestic demand peak season is arriving, but the increase is limited due to export policy restrictions, and supply-demand contradictions still exist. The price of raw material calcium carbide is rising, providing strong short-term cost support. It is expected that the fluctuations in the PVC spot market will be limited, and the domestic PVC market price is anticipated to remain weakly stable today.

4. Data Calendar