[PVC Daily Review] Supply and Demand Pattern Continues, PVC Weakens Intraday

1. Today's Summary

Domestic PVC manufacturers' ex-factory prices are mainly stable, with individual adjustments down by 20-100 yuan/ton.

The Zhenyang facility has not yet resumed operations, and Jinchuan and Beiyuan are about to start maintenance. 。

③ The 200,000-ton facility in the bay has been put into operation; Jiajiaxingcheng and Yaowang are expected to conduct trial runs within the month.The new unit of Bohai Chemical Development is expected to increase load and start mass production by the end of the month. 。

2Spot Overview

Based on the Changzhou market in East China, today's cash warehouse price for carbide method type five in East China is 4,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. 。

The domestic PVC spot market remained generally stable, with slight fluctuations in the morning session. In the afternoon, as bulk commodities weakened, PVC spot transaction prices were adjusted downward. During the week, both supply and demand continued to increase. However, uncertainties in export policies and the release of new domestic production capacity put pressure on spot prices. In East China, carbide-based PVC type 5 spot prices (ex-warehouse) were at 4,620–4,760 yuan/ton, while ethylene-based PVC was at 4,800–5,000 yuan/ton.

3. Futures-Cash Basis

Table 2 Main Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/Ton)

The PVC basis for the January contract in the East China region is in the -120/-200 range, and the basis is weakening.

4. Production Update

Table 3   PVC List of Maintenance Devices

Yinglite plans partial maintenance in mid-month, and Heilongjiang Haohua plans minor repairs within the month. 。

Figure 4 Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage Trend Chart	Figure 5 Comparison Chart of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

5. Price Forecast

In the short term, there is limited change in the supply and demand of the domestic PVC spot market; however, the increased trial runs of new capacity units have raised concerns about supply within the industry. Unclear foreign trade export policies have suppressed export demand. In the short term, industry costs remain firm, coupled with maintenance of some upstream units, providing support to the price floor of the PVC market. It is expected that the market will remain in a stalemate within a range in the near future. The current price for the calcium carbide-based five-type PVC in East China is estimated to be between 4,650 and 4,800 yuan/ton for prompt delivery with cash payment.

6. Related Products

Calcium carbide ： The domestic calcium carbide market remains stable, with the mainstream trade price in Wuhai region rising to 2,400 yuan per ton. 。

Ethylene The ethylene market price remains stable. CFR Northeast Asia 840 USD/ton CFR Southeast Asia 840 USD/ton 。

7. Data Calendar

Table 4 Overview of PVC Data Calendar