[pvc daily review] spot market stalemate and stability, pvc fundamentals under pressure

1. Today's Summary

Domestic PVC manufacturers are mostly keeping their factory prices stable while some are making slight adjustments.

Eli plans to undergo maintenance tomorrow. With the increase in new production capacity, market supply continues to grow. 。

③. "Anti-involution" policies intensified. Analysts expect the cement industry to reduce clinker production capacity by 10% within the year.

2 Spot Overview

Based on the East China Changzhou market, today's cash price for acetylene method Type 5 in East China is 4,730 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. 。

Today's Review: The domestic PVC market maintained a slight range-bound fluctuation before the holiday. Spot supply continued to grow, terminal stocking demand was average, and market sales remained stable. It is expected that industry inventory will continue to accumulate before and after the holiday. Costs are relatively weak, and the spot market is under pressure. Commodity intraday trends are strong, providing good support for the market, with limited short-term price adjustments. In the East China region, the carbide method stands at 4,650-4,800 yuan/ton on a cash basis, and the ethylene method at 4,800-5,100 yuan/ton.

3、 Spot-Futures Basis

Table 2 Main Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/Ton)

The basis of the PVC January contract in the East China region is in the range of -100/-200, with limited basis adjustment and market transactions under negotiation.

4、 Production Update

No new enterprise maintenance plans. 。

Figure 4: The Trend of Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage	Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization and Price Chart
Source of data: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5. Price Forecast

Before the holiday, the domestic PVC spot market is experiencing a supply-demand stalemate. With the release of new production capacity, increased production, and reduced maintenance, supply is expected to remain at a high level before the holiday. However, pre-holiday restocking demand from downstream buyers is not performing well, leading to increased inventory pressure on the industry. As a result, sellers are mainly keeping prices stable, supported by steady delivery costs. After the holiday, the market costs are expected to face downward pressure, weakening the support at the market's bottom. Nevertheless, considering the anticipated support from related sectors, it is expected that the market will remain stable before the holiday. The price for acetylene-based PVC type 5 with spot delivery is expected to range between 4,650-4,780 yuan/ton.

6、 Related Products

Calcium carbide ： The domestic calcium carbide market has slightly adjusted, and post-holiday market expectations continue to be pessimistic. The main trade price in the Wuhai region of the calcium carbide market has been reduced by 50 to 2550 yuan/ton.

Ethylene ： Ethylene CFR Northeast Asia at $815/ton, down $5/ton, CFR Southeast Asia at $810/ton, down $10/ton, with ethylene prices slightly reduced. 。

7. Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview