Today's summary

①、Domestic PVC manufacturers' ex-factory prices are stable;

②、PVC production enterprises' regular annual leave starts to increase in April;

③、This week, the volume of PVC export orders slowed down on a weekly basis, with the main focus being on the delivery of export goods.

2spot overview

Table 1 Domestic PVC Spot Price Summary (yuan/ton)

Taking the East China Changzhou market as a reference, today's cash warehouse withdrawal price for type five calcium carbide method in the East China region is 4820 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to yesterday's price.。

PVC supply and demand pattern shows weakness, market trading atmosphere is平淡, industry inventory digestion is slow, and spot market prices are mainly stagnant; the market trend is affected by the weaker black energy sector, leading to a downward fluctuation, with some spot transaction prices being adjusted downwards. In the East China region, the cash price for the five-type calcium carbide method is 4800-4950 yuan/ton, and for the ethylene method, it is 4950-5200 yuan/ton. Note: The term "平淡" was left untranslated as its direct translation ("flat" or "dull") might not fully capture the intended nuance in this context without additional explanation. If you prefer a specific translation for "平淡," please let me know.

3.spot-futures basis

Table 2 Main Delivery Location Basis (yuan/ton)

From the perspective of basis, the PVC basis in East China is in the range of 05 contract -150 to -280 yuan/ton, with the spot market stabilizing and the basis fluctuating slightly.

4.production dynamics

Table 3PVCMaintenance equipment list

Suzhou Huasu and Qinzhou Huayi have not started operations, Yanhu Magnesium Industry is expected to resume next week。

5. price forecasttest

The domestic PVC market shows a weak supply and demand performance, with upstream production enterprises delaying the resumption of maintenance, coupled with additional maintenance scales next week, leading to an expected slight decrease in supply; foreign trade exports are currently mainly focused on delivery, with new orders cautiously viewed as weak due to policy instability, while domestic demand remains stable but new demand is slowing down; cost-wise, it is expected to remain firm in the short term, with a decrease in caustic soda prices and an increase in calcium carbide costs, resulting in reduced gross profit margins for the industry, and enhanced bottom support for enterprises. In the short term, there are no significant factors affecting the PVC market, which is expected to continue fluctuating within a range, with the spot price of the five-type ethylene method in the East China PVC market expected to be in the range of 4800-5000 yuan/ton.