1. Today's Summary

① The ex-factory prices of domestic calcium carbide-based PVC producers have been reduced by 30-60 yuan/ton for some manufacturers;

② Suzhou Huasu started production today, and the Westlake Chlor-Alkali plant in the US has issued a force majeure notice;

③ At 24:00 on March 5th, the price limit for gasoline and diesel will be reduced, with gasoline down by 135 yuan per ton and diesel by 130 yuan per ton, equivalent to 0.10 yuan per liter for 89#, 0.10 yuan per liter for 92#, 0.11 yuan per liter for 95#, and 0.11 yuan per liter for 0#.

2. Spot Market Overview

Using the Changzhou market in East China as a benchmark, the cash pickup price for type five calcium carbide-based PVC in the East China region is 4900 yuan/ton today, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from the previous period.

The domestic PVC market fundamentals show an increase in supply and weak demand. Within the week, maintenance activities have decreased, leading to an expected increase in production. Demand remains stable but is expected to weaken due to tariff policies, affecting foreign trade. The commodity market is fluctuating and declining, and the PVC intraday price has dropped. The inquiry and transaction atmosphere at the lower end of the market has improved, with some orders being placed. In the East China region, the cash pickup price for type five calcium carbide-based PVC ranges from 4850 to 5000 yuan/ton, while the ethylene-based PVC ranges from 5100 to 5350 yuan/ton.

3. Futures and Spot Basis

In terms of basis, the PVC basis in the East China region for the 05 contract is in the range of -150 to -280 yuan/ton, with the basis range narrowing. The basis for new goods is relatively high, while that for old goods is weaker.

4. Production Dynamics

Xinjiang Zhongtai, Yili Nangang, Bohua, Huasu, Qilu, and others have not yet determined their maintenance schedules; Suzhou Huasu has resumed production. The Westlake Chlor-Alkali diaphragm alkali facility in Louisiana, USA, has issued a force majeure, which is expected to reduce supply.

5. Price Forecast

Recently, the PVC market has been significantly influenced by policy. The increased tariffs imposed by the US have led to a decline in commodity prices, putting pressure on the export of products. Fundamentally, PVC maintenance activities have decreased, leading to an expected increase in supply, while domestic demand remains stable. Spot market prices are trending downward. In the short term, the trend in the spot market fundamentals remains unchanged, and macroeconomic influences persist. The cash price for type five calcium carbide-based PVC in the East China region is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4800 to 5000 yuan/ton.

6. Related Products

Calcium Carbide: The mainstream ex-factory price for calcium carbide in the Wuhai region is 2550 yuan/ton. The market is expected to remain stable in the near term, with attention to the impact of reduced demand due to downstream PVC maintenance in the long term.

Ethylene: The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is 900 USD/ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price is 920 USD/ton. With the decline in crude oil prices, ethylene prices are under pressure but are expected to remain stable in the short term.

7. Data Calendar