[PVC Daily Review] Low-Price PVC Transactions, Supply and Demand Remain Weak

1. Today's Summary

Domestic PVC production enterprises have lowered their ex-factory prices by 30-50 yuan/ton.

② Some units of Junzheng, Tianye, Lutai, and Xinfa are under maintenance.

The Ministry of Transport announced that starting from October 14, a special port service fee will be charged for American vessels.

2. Spot Overview

Based on the East China Changzhou market, the spot cash price for PVC produced by the calcium carbide method in East China today is 4,580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.

The domestic PVC spot market is fluctuating weakly, with the focus of spot price transactions continuing to decline by 10-30 yuan/ton. Spot one-price transactions are at a stalemate, and intraday prices are seeking lower transactions due to the impact of declines in bulk commodities, with end-users maintaining low-price purchases. The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and market trends have a greater impact on the transaction focus. In the East China region, the calcium carbide method (type 5) spot price is 4,550-4,680 yuan/ton, while the ethylene method is 4,750-4,950 yuan/ton.

3. Futures-spot basis

The PVC basis for the East China region's January contract is in the range of -40/-100, with the basis continuing to narrow slightly.

Figure 3 PVC Basis Trend in East China (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data source: Longzhong Information

4. Production Dynamics

Figure 4: Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage Trend Chart	Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price
Data source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5. Price Prediction

Domestic PVC supply has weakly decreased due to maintenance, but the new production capacity is keeping output at a high level. Domestic demand remains stable, with downstream buyers restocking at low prices. Foreign trade exports are performing moderately, leading to a market stalemate in supply and demand. Cost support is weak, providing insufficient support at the bottom. Recently, the market has been heavily influenced by futures performance, with expectations of a price rebound in the black and related bulk commodities leading to a weak market stabilization. The East China calcium carbide method Type 5 is expected to fluctuate between 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

6. Related Products

Calcium carbide: The mainstream trade price of domestic calcium carbide in the Wuhai region dropped by 50 to 2400 yuan/ton, with the market experiencing short-term weak fluctuations.

Ethylene: The estimated CFR China price for ethylene at ports is around 770-790 USD/ton, with ethylene prices under pressure.