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【PVC Daily Review】Down by 20! With significant fluctuations in external macro expectations, it is anticipated that PVC will maintain a slight fluctuation.

Longzhong 2025-03-04 17:01:58

1. Today's Summary

①**Domestic calcium carbide method PVC production enterprises' ex-factory prices are mainly stable;

②, Suzhou Huasu resumed operations after 5 days, with no new maintenance added.

The U.S. announced that it will impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports starting from March 4th.

2Spot Overview

Based on the Changzhou market in East China, the spot cash warehouse delivery price of electric calcium method PVC Model V in East China today is at 4,960 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan per ton from the previous day.

This week, the upstream raw material calcium carbide for PVC continued to rise in price, while the ethylene raw material remained firm, providing strong cost support. Coupled with positive macro expectations, the prices of bulk commodities such as petrochemicals fluctuated upward during the session. The spot quotations for PVC remained firm and optimistic, with general price increases seen in the market. In the East China region, the cash warehouse delivery price for calcium carbide method Type V was between 4,950-5,080 yuan/ton, while for the ethylene method it was between 5,100-5,400 yuan/ton.

3.Spot-Futures Basis

In terms of basis, the PVC basis in East China ranges from -180 to -280 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, with the basis range showing a weak and slight adjustment.

4.Production Dynamics

Xinjiang Zhongtai, Yili Nangang, Bohua, Huasu, Qilu, and others have not yet determined the maintenance schedule, while Suzhou Huasu will resume production in this cycle.。

5. Price Forecast

The supply and demand fundamentals for PVC show increases on both sides, with reduced production losses from maintenance leading to an increase in market supply, and downstream operations recovering to pre-holiday levels, resulting in increased essential purchases. Cost support remains firm, providing a positive bottom support for the market. However, external macro expectations fluctuate significantly, with domestic policy support and changes in foreign trade policies still causing considerable disruptions in the market. Market doubts about future demand expectations persist, and it is anticipated that prices will remain slightly volatile in the near term. The****region's electric furnace method PVC Type V spot cash price fluctuates within the range of 4900-5100 yuan per ton.

6.Related products

The mainstream ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the Wuhai region is reported to be 2550 yuan/ton, and the domestic calcium carbide market trading prices are mainly stable and observing.

The price of ethylene is $900/ton NE Asia, $920/ton CFR SE Asia, indicating high cost pressure on ethylene.

7. Data Calendar

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【PVC Daily Review】Down by 20! With significant fluctuations in external macro expectations, it is anticipated that PVC will maintain a slight fluctuation.

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