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[pp morning update] expected today polypropylene to continue weak operation

Longzhong 2025-10-16 08:46:44

I. Focus Points

1 、10/15: International oil prices fell due to market concerns about the risk of oversupply and the demand outlook being suppressed by trade disputes initiated by the United States. NYMEX crude oil futures for the November contract fell by $0.43 per barrel to $58.27, a decrease of 0.73% compared to the previous period. ICE Brent crude futures for the December contract fell by $0.48 per barrel to $61.91, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2512 contract fell by 7.6 to 444.9 yuan per barrel, and during the night session, fell by 1.9 to 443 yuan per barrel.

2 On October 15th: Propylene FOB Korea remained at 750 USD/ton, CFR China remained at 775 USD/ton.

3 、 As of October 15, 2025, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China is 985,200 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons compared to the previous period, representing a month-on-month decrease of 2.57%.

Core logic: Macroeconomic expectations are relatively weak, the improvement in polypropylene's fundamentals is limited, and the current trend continues to be weak.

2. Price List

Product	Category	10 The 14th of the month	10 The 15th day of the month	Percentage change	Unit
Crude oil	NYMEX	58.70	58.27	-0.43	USD/barrel
Crude oil	ICE Brent Crude Oil	62.39	61.91	-0.48	USD/barrel
Propylene	Domestic propylene	6280	6260	-20	Yuan/ton
Methanol	DomesticMethanol	2340	2340	0	Yuan/ton
PP Main futures contract	Closing price	6602	6595	-7	Yuan/ton
Mainstream price of wire drawing	Zibo	6621	6600	-21	Yuan/ton
	Ningbo	6620	6578	-42	CNY/ton
	Guangzhou	6706	6667	-39	Yuan/ton
Related Products	PP Powder	6520	6520	0	Yuan/ton
Related Products	PE	7320	7287	-33	yuan/ton
Remark:
1 The above RMB prices are all tax-inclusive current exchange rates.
2 "The prices for the two periods refer to the point prices from the previous two working weeks before this week, not the weekly average prices."
3 The percentage change refers to the month-on-month variation.

3. Market Outlook

Polypropylene The supply side of ethylene has not yet shown effective reduction, and the market still exhibits a loose supply. Due to low prices stimulating demand, some factories are delaying priced orders to focus on purchasing spot goods, which promotes certain inventory consumption. However, against the backdrop of weak macroeconomic expectations, demand is unlikely to drive prices higher. It is expected that the polypropylene market will continue to operate weakly today, with mainstream prices for East China wire drawing at 6,500-6,650 yuan/ton.

4. Data Calendar

Data Project	Release Date	Previous Data	Current Trend Forecast	Unit
PP Total Inventory	Wednesday 4:30 PM	101.12	↑	10,000 tons
PP Production Enterprise Capacity Utilization Rate	Thursday 4:30 PM	77.75%	↑	%
PP Weekly Maintenance Impact	Thursday 4:30 PM	17.052	↓	Ten thousand tons
Total Production of Domestic PP Enterprises	Thursday 4:30 PM	79.62	↑	Ten thousand tons
Profit of Oil-based PP Companies	Thursday 4:30 PM	-411.46	↑	Yuan/ton
Profit of Coal-based PP Enterprises	Thursday 4:30 PM	251.53	↓	Yuan/ton
PDH Make PP Enterprises Profitable	Thursday 4:30 PM	-375.48	↑	Yuan/ton
PP Import Profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	-558.29	↑	CNY/ton
PP Export Profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	-23.04	↓	USD/ton
1 Consider large fluctuations as significant, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. 2 Considered as narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with price changes within 0-3%.

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[pp morning update] expected today polypropylene to continue weak operation

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