[PP Daily Review] Upstream Inventory Pressure Remains, Polypropylene Market Weakly Declines

1. Today's Summary

①, China National Petroleum Corporation East China Shandong Warehouse PP slightly decreased, Lanzhou Petrochemical 9018 reduced by 100 to 7350 yuan/ton. CNPC South China PP Guangxi Petrochemical L5E89 increased by 20.Yuan/tonThe price is set at 6,700 yuan/ton, L5D98C is reduced by 50 yuan/ton to a price of 6,850 yuan/ton, and Dushanzi K8003 is reduced by 100 yuan to a price of 7,450 yuan/ton.

②. Today, domestic polypropylene shutdown impacts have increased by 2.13% compared to last week, reaching 18.31%. The Phase II 450,000-ton/year unit at Jineng Chemical, the 400,000-ton/year third line, and the 300,000-ton/year fifth line at Yulong Petrochemical have been shut down, with an expected reduction in daily supply of 3,450 tons. The daily production proportion of raffia has decreased by 3.22% compared to last week to 23.24%, mainly due to the 200,000-ton/year unit in Shijiazhuang switching to injection molding, the 120,000-ton/year unit in Jingmen Petrochemical switching to fiber, and the 400,000-ton/year first line at Yulong Petrochemical switching to transparent materials, with an expected decrease in raffia production by 2,160 tons per day.

③、（20251003-1009） The supply-demand balance has shifted from a tight equilibrium before the holiday to an oversupply in this period. The market sentiment has been somewhat suppressed. In the next period, the supply-demand balance may be affected as factories resume operations after the holiday, and the increase in demand from most downstream sectors will provide certain support to the market.

2. Spot Overview

Based on the East China region, today's polypropylene filament price is 6620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to yesterday. The national average price for filament remains stable compared to yesterday, in line with morning expectations.

The futures market is fluctuating and trending downward today. In the morning, the market reported a decline of 20-50 yuan/ton. International trade barriers have re-emerged, leading to cautious sentiments in the market, with limited demand follow-up. The market is under pressure, and the focus has shifted downwards, with traders being cautious and making concessions to avoid risks. By noon, the mainstream price for drawn wire in East China is... 6550-6700 Yuan/ton.

Figure 1 Domestic Polypropylene Price Trend (Unit: Yuan/Ton)	Figure 2 Domestic Polypropylene Prices Trend Chart by Region (Unit: Yuan/Ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

3. Spot-Futures Basis

As for the basis, the polypropylene basis in the East China region is 19 yuan/ton today, an increase of 73 yuan/ton compared to yesterday; the basis in the North China region is 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan/ton compared to yesterday.

Figure 3 Basis Trend in North China (Unit: Yuan/Ton)	Figure 4 Basis Trend in East China (Unit: Yuan/Ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

Production Dynamics

Polypropylene capacity utilization rate increased from 77.16% yesterday to 78.03%, up by 0.97% compared to yesterday. PP profit decreased by 43.79 to -286.59 yuan/ton compared to yesterday.

Figure 5 Trend of Domestic Polypropylene Production Capacity Utilization Rate	Figure 6 Domestic Polypropylene Profit Price Trend Chart (Unit: Yuan/Ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5. Market Sentiment

After the holiday, market inventory accumulates, and due to a lack of favorable support, merchants cautiously offer discounts to facilitate sales. Downstream factories have limited order follow-up, resulting in a noticeable decrease in enthusiasm for raw material procurement. The upstream production side adjusts prices in a timely manner to adapt to inventory changes.

6. Price Prediction

Currently, downstream factories have limited new orders, and the increase in production is slow, leading to a general lack of enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Coupled with the resurgence of international trade barriers, this has negatively impacted market sentiment. During the holiday period, upstream inventory has accumulated, resulting in significant inventory pressure across the industrial chain. It is expected that tomorrow... Polypropylene Market Surrounding 6500-6700 The market is oscillating in the current range, with a focus on changes in demand and supply.

7. Related Product Information

Table 2 Summary of Polypropylene Related Product Prices (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Longzhong Information

8. Data Calendar

Table 3 Overview of Domestic Polypropylene Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Source: Longzhong Information